SPY opened to the downside this morning, and continued lower most of the day. We can count a 5 wave sequence from yesterday's early morning high as (398.92, 395.56), (398.27, 394.97), (396.21, 393.69), with an R^2 value of .993304. This sequence completed above our targeted range of 391.5-390.7, which increases the probability that the overall wave may be more complex than originally anticipated.
There are several scenarios at this point, and so it is more relevant to point to levels of interest than describing those options. 391.5-390.7 remains a target on the downside. We can now estimate a range on the upside of 397.6-398.3. Once again this is a very narrow range that is more easily broken to the upside. A move above this level would point to a further upside move with an initial working target of 404-408.
Should the 397.6-398.3 level hold, this still remains a bearish count.
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