Tuesday's Update 03/14/2023

 SPY gapped up this morning to 390.44 off yesterday's low of 385.05. The rise continued into midday, with SPY reaching a high of 393.45. After attaining that high, SPY gave back some of the gains through the afternoon, hitting a low of 387.05 after 3:00pm. From there SPY rallied again, finishing the day at 391.68.

If we look back at yesterday, a short term count becomes apparent.

From yesterday's early morning low, we see SPY rose in three waves to 390.39 Following that, we see a three wave decline to 385.05. Those waves can then be counted as Waves 1, 2, and 3, followed by three waves, A, B, and C of an apparent inverted corrective wave. This implies a move higher, followed by a decline. 

This morning we saw SPY rise in a 5 wave sequence, (385.05, 391.92), (390.37, 392.99), (391.90, 393.45), with an R^2 value of .99313. This move took us to 393.45, just slightly above the 393.16 high I talked about yesterday. This indicates the bearish count could be reversing itself. There are still a number of ways this could go, but for the moment it looks like the SPY has avoided the immediate move lower.

After that high, SPY moved lower, forming a Wave 1 at 392.01. From there we saw an inverted corrective wave, (392.01, 392.74), (391.57, 392.51), (388.35, 390.53), with an R^2 value of .9995. That completed Wave 2, and the entire sequence from 393.45 as (393.45, 392.01), (390.53, 387.71), (390.00. 387.05), with an R^2 value .99959. The rise from there can be seen as a Wave 1, followed by an inverted corrective Wave 2. 

Looking at the two days together, we can see that today's completed Wave D of the inverted corrective wave, and today's low Wave E, and thus Wave 4 from yesterday's low. With four waves completed, we can now project Wave 5 to complete at 393-395. 

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