Monday 03/30/2020

At the open, The SPX rebounded slightly from Friday's late afternoon sell-off. Seems as though a lot of people are wary of holding longs over the weekend. After closing at 2540.21 on Friday, the SPX jumped to 2580.76 near the open, then settled down, trading sideways before continuing the move higher to 2611.93 before pulling back slightly to 2588.88. The index continued higher after that hitting 2680.31 before setting into the close at 2626.04.

For most of the last two days the SPX has traded within a range bounded by last Thursday's 2637.01 high, and Friday's early morning low of 2520.02. Today's move failed to breakout to a new short term high, so a move to slightly lower levels is still possible. My count from the weekend remains unchanged. From the 2191.86 low, the SPX completed Wave1at 2300.73. From there index formed an inverted corrective Wave 2, which ended at 2360.25. The SPX then rose in a 5 wave sequence to 2637.01 to complete Wave 3. Wave 4 may have ended with the small pullback to 2520.02, but without the index moving above 2637.01 that remains unconfirmed.

Until the end of Wave 4 is known, precise projections for Wave 5 cannot be made, but in an effort to give some interim targets, I will run through a couple of scenarios. If Friday's low of 2520.02 completed Wave 4, my current count would suggest a Wave 5 high of 2956 - 3089. But if that low holds, it also presents an alternate count suggesting 2690-2771 as the high. So a couple of levels to work with.

Shorter term, today's 2631.80 high may have completed a 5 wave sequence from 2520.02. I've hus added some short term support levels at 2584, and 2548.

If the SPX moves below 2520.02, support is at 2482, and 2402.