Market Update 03/18/2020

The SPX opened lower again this morning, dropping to 2385.34 before attempting to rally. That attempt took the index back up to 2453.57 before resuming the march lower to 2280.52, which proved to be the low of the day. From there the index staged a more robust rally through the afternoon, moving up to 2409.81 just before the close. This one again brought the SPX into overbought territory on the 15 minute chart. The low of 2280.52 is notable also, reaching the bottom trend line of what appears to be a triangle, which I, and several others have noted. That is the point where it staged the afternoon rally. It also brought the index into the zone that would complete a 5 wave sequence for the alternate count I talked about yesterday. So an area watch.

But for now I will still go with my primary count. In yesterday's post I stated that count would require the SPX to complete the final 3 waves before completing. With the action today, it os possible the SPX completed 2 of those waves with the move lower to 2280.52, and the afternoon rally back to 2409.81. With the SPX hitting overbought on the 15 minute chart at the close, 2409.81 may be the end of that wave. If so, and with just one wave to complete, it allows us to give some targets to look for. if my count is correct, and 2409.81 was the completion of a wave, the final wave projects to the 2254-2087 range. Not quite hitting 2030, but within that target range.

So as always a few caveats. One of the useful aspects of my model is giving specific ranges for targets, so it helps to clarify where to look, and gives you a specific point where you know something else is going on. So what to look for today:

If the SPX does not take out today's 2280.52 low, and moves above yesterday's 2553.93 high, it would be highly likely that my alternate cunt was in play, and the index might be in for a move higher.

If the the SPX moves into the 2254-2087 range, and then takes out the 2409.81 high from today, my primary count would be in play, and that would likely complete a 5 wave sequence from 3393.52.

If the SPX falls below 2087, it would mean that today's 2280.52 low was not the end of the 7th wave, but only a part of it. Which means the index would potentially have more downside.

And now, if nobody minds, I'd like to add a few personal words. So those interested only in the analysis can stop there.

First I'd like to thank Lunker for maintaining his blog. It can be a lot of work, and takes a lot of time, and I know I'm not the only one who appreciates the effort.

Secondly I'd like to thank those who have had kind words, and have shown interest in my work. It is more than greatly appreciated.

I started working on what has turned into my 5 Wave Model over 10 years ago. Similar in ways to Elliott Wave, but quite different in many respects also. So when I began developing the model, I started looking at Elliott Wave blogs because they were the closest thing to my work.At some point I stumbled across The Elliott Wave Lives On, by Tony Caldaro. For many  years I found it fun and enjoyable to share my work, and exchange ideas with others. For several reasons, which aren't important here, I decided to stop posting there, and stopped working on my own blog posts. I still followed to blog, mainly because of the respect I came to have for Tony, and his methods. One of the things that struck me about Tony was his commitment to sharing his ideas, and his belief that we owed it to others to pass on knowledge. That it was our responsibility. I was always amazed at his tolerance for people who were unkind in their words to him. Made me respect him more. I, along with many others, was saddened by his passing. But it also made me think about some things, and motivated me to start sharing my ideas again. I in no way want to compare myself, or my ideas to Tony's and his, but rather take some of philosophies to heart.

So my purpose here is simply to share my ideas. If you find value in them, use them, if you think it's a garbage, feel free to disregard them. I have tried to for over a decade, but it works. But it is not the magic bullet. Like every other method, it works wonderfully at times, and fails miserably at others. It is a tool that I hope some can add to their box and find useful.

I do not give financial advice. I do not give trading advice. I am not a trader. I trade, but I'm not a trader. I do not have a multi-million dollar trading account that I can take screen shots of. I am not perfect. My model is not perfect. My interpretations are not perfect. This is not my job. I have a different job. So sometimes my posts will be late at night, sometimes short, sometimes not there. But I will do my best to at least give a short update as much as I can. Some posts will be more detailed than others. As this is my own model, I will try to explain the terminology, and thought process the best I can. Feel free to ask questions if you'd like. I will answer as best I can.

So, again, I am simply here to share my ideas. It is a work in progress, so I will add things as I can. My sincere thanks again for the interest.