Monday 03/23/2020

The SPX opened lower this morning, dropping to 2229.47 in the first 15 minutes before rallying to 2294.55. The rally was short lived, and the index soon rolled over, falling to the low of the day at 2191.86. From there the SPX ran up to 2300.73, fell back to 2198.98, and then moved slightly higher into the close.

The SPX has moved lower since last Thursday's wave c high of 2466.67. My last few posts have outlined my expectations from that point. First a move lower below 2280.52, followed by a move higher to complete the fifth wave from 2280.52. With today's move to 2191.86, the SPX looks to have completed a 5 wave sequence from 2466.67, the wave c high. I have labeled this on the 15 minute chart as 2466.97 - 2404.99 - 2453.01 - 2353.85 - 2404.30 - 2191.86. Now knowing the probably fourth point, a target range for wave e can be projected. To this point the move has been 2280.52 - 2431.03 - 2385.83 - 2466.97 - 2191.86. This would project a target of 2389 - 2409 for wave e.

So I am looking for a move higher to 2389-2409. A move above 2409 would likely invalidate this short term count. A move below 2191.86 before reaching my target level would mean wave d has not completed.