If we look at the move from 2657.67, we can see an initial move up to 2729.55. From there the SPX pulled back to 2708.35, before rising again to 2754.09. After another pullback, the index rose again to 2813.07, before another pullback to 2778.76. Looking more closely at the three pullbacks following the 2729.55 high, we have (2729.55, 2708.35), (2754.09, 2729.52), (2813.07, 2778.76), which has an R^2 value of .9999. Given that, the best interpretation is that the SPX formed another inverted corrective wave for wave 4.
Widening out, and then looking at the wave structure from 2447.49 we have (2447.49, 2538.18), (2657.67, 2729.55), (2778.76, 2818.57), which has an R^2 value of .9971, which would satisfy conditions for the completion of that wave. And since that is still within the range that would satisfy a completion of a 5 wave sequence from 2191.86 low, it still appears that the SPX has completed that sequence.
The negative technical picture I elaborated on Wednesday essentially remains the same. On the 15 Minute chart, a negative divergence arose, and near Wednesday's close, the SPX moved to oversold on that chart, and then moved above 50, without moving to a new high. This could possibly be the start of a move down.
The negative divergence on the 60 Minute chart remains, and the Daily chart shows the SPX having moved into overbought territory on the RSI(5). On Wednesday the SPX had remained below 50 on the Weekly chart, but the slight move higher on Thursday brought that above 50 on the RSI(5), one more indication of at least a short term top.
If the SPX continues to move higher, the best interpretation would be to take the entire move from 2657.67 to 2818.57 as wave 3 from the 2447.49 low. The pullback to 2762.36 could then possibly be wave 4. I bring this possibility up, because the minimum projection for wave 5 under this scenario would be 2908, above the 2888 upper limit for a wave 5 from the 2191.86 low. That could indicate that this move has a ways to go on the upside.
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