The SPX opened to the downside this morning,
falling to 1714.12. It appears I was a bit premature yesterday in calling for
the completion of an inverted corrective wave at 1715.19. I would now say that
1715 was only wave C of that wave, with the bounce to 1722 being Wave D. The
lower opening today would then be Wave E, and completed the inverted corrective
wave 2 from Tuesday’s 1695.93 low. After the opening drop, the SPX rallied,
moving to 1729.64. This looks to complete Wave 3, and was then followed by a
drop to 1725.96 that would seem to complete Wave 4. The index rallied once
again off that low, rising to a new all-time high of 1733.45 before fading into
the close.
With 4 waves seemingly completed from the 1695.93
low, all that is left now is the completion of wave 5. This wave should
complete above 1741, with an optimal target of 1746. This is very close to my
ongoing target of 1745 for the completion f the wave from 1646.47. Yesterday I
said I was leaning towards an alternate count for that wave, which now seems to
be playing out. It is possible that 3 waves completed at 1662.47, as opposed to
the single wave I had been counting. These 3 waves may have completed as
1646.47-1654.69-1651.02-1662.47. This was followed by an inverted corrective
wave 4, which went 1654.81-1703.44-1692.13-1711.57-1695.93. This count yields
an optimal target of 1745. Thus it appears quite likely that the sequence from
1646.47 will complete between 1741 and 1752, with 1745-1746 being the optimal
target.
If this wave does complete within that range, I
would then expect the SPX to move lower. As a rough estimate, I would be
looking for a low near 1680. This fits well with my longer term count from
1074.77. I still do not see this as the end of this longer term sequence, but a
continuation of the converging upward trend that has been in place since the
1560.33 low.
Support remains at 1723, and then 1703. A move
below 1714 at this point could signal the end of this move.
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