Wednesday's Market 03/12/2014

Yesterday I said a move below 1863.88 would likely mean an end to the wave from 1737.92. Today the SPX moved below that at the open, falling to 1854.38, but did so in a manner that seems to leave intact the recent rally.

My count has Friday’s 1878.16 completing a 5 wave sequence from 1834.44. This was followed by a semi-inverted corrective wave that I thought had completed yesterday at 1863.88. When the SPX dropped to 1858.08 at the open, and then bounced to 1860.93, another possibility revealed itself. Wave C of the semi-inverted corrective wave completed yesterday at 1868.51, and I then counted the move to 1873.69, and then 1863.88 as Waves D and E. Looking at the entire sequence from 1868.51 to 1860.93, 1873.69-1863.88-1868.41-1858.08-1860.93, it became apparent that Wave D was an inverted corrective wave, which completed at 1860.93. The final drop this morning to 1854.38 then completed the semi-inverted corrective wave from 1878.16.

I continue to look at the wave from 1560.33 as the final wave from October 2011 1074.77 low. The wave from 1560.33 has likely completed four waves thus far. The first wave ended at 1709.36, and was followed by an inverted corrective wave which completed at 1646.47. Wave 3 carried the SPX to 1850.84, and Wave 4 ended at 1737.92. From 1737.92 the SPX looks to have completed two waves at 1858.71 and 1834.44 respectively, and now Waves 1 and 2 of 3 at 1878.16 and 1854.38. I continue to look for Wave 3 from 1737.92 to complete above 1909, and the complete sequence from that point above 1957, with an optimal target of 2001. A drop below today’s 1854.38 low would likely mean my alternate scenario is in play.