The SPX started off to the upside this morning,
hitting another all time high of 1745.88. After a small pullback that closed
the gap up open, the index hit another all time high, and the high of the day
at 1747.79. This means my short term count from last Tuesday’s 1695.93 low was
wrong. My original count from that low, which I changed on Friday, actually
turned out to be correct. The high of 1747.79 then completed the sequence from
that low, and a sequence from the 1646.47 low. From today’s high, the market
completed a sequence down at 1741.71, a sequence up at 1745.41, another sequence
down at 1740.82, and what appears to be another sequence up at 1744.52.
With a 5 wave sequence seemingly completed from
the 1646.47 low, the SPX is at a decision point. A breakout to the downside
here will likely signal a change in the short term trend, while a break above
today’s high will most likely mean a continuation of this short term upward move.
I have been looking for a top from 1646 to occur near 1745, and then be
followed by a move lower to possibly 1680. This would fit my longer term
outlook as I outlined over the weekend. A move above these levels would not
alter that long term count, but would change some of the target levels. If the
SPX does move higher, I will update my targets.
Support is at 1723, 1703, and then 1680.
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