One More Move Higher for TSLA?

 TSLA has been on a relentless tear since putting in a low at 101.81. After an initial move higher to 123.52, TSLA moved sideways, bottoming at 115.60. From that point it was almost a straight line up to 214.00, with only short pauses along the way. Once hitting 214.00, TSLA had a slightly deeper correction to 187.61. That did not last long, however, as the stock quickly recovered and out in a new high at 217.65.

My analysis shows Wave 3 of a 5 wave sequence completing at that 217.65 high. The subsequent pullback to 197.50 was likely Wave 4, with Wave 5 currently underway. If this count is correct Wave 5 should carry TSLA to a new move high. The maximum price for the sequence as described would be 240.00.

TSLA appears to be in Wave 5 of the current 5 wave sequence, and should complete this sequence between 217.65, and 240.00. A move below the previous 197.50 low would likely mean that the sequence has completed. After this move, I would look for a more substantial pullback.

 

 If you find this analysis helpful, please donate so I can continue bringing it to you.

Wednesday 04/15/2020

As of Friday's close, I made my case for the possibility of the SPX having completed a 5 wave sequence from the 2191.86 low. Given my count from that low, there is an upper limit of 2888 for this wave to complete.

On Monday, instead of continuing down from Friday's 2818.57 high, the index gapped up at the open, and then continued to move higher through the day, finally topping out at 2851.85. Friday's high of 2818.75 still looks to have completed a 5 wave sequence from the 2447.49 Wave 4 low. But it does look like that only completed a first wave from that low. Looking at the SPX from the 2818.57 high, the index first dropped to 2721.17 on Friday. The initial move higher on Monday took the index to 2843.83 with a subsequent move lower to 2807.89. Finally the SPX made another push higher to 2851.85. From the Wave 4 2447.49 low, the SPX thus has formed 5 waves, (2447.49, 2818.57), (2721.17, 2843.83), (2807.89, 2851.85), which has an R^2 value of 1. At times waves will form such a structure, or a structure that creates a trap.

So taking the waves from the 2191.86 low to the 2851.85 high, gives, (2191.86, 2300.73), (2360.25, 2641.39), (2447.49, 2851.85). This is still under the 2888 upper limit, and has an R^2 value of .9979.

This morning saw the SPX gap down, moving into oversold territory on the RSI(5), and then staged something of a recovery to hit overbought, without making a new high on the SPX. This suggests another move down. The level I am watching to the upside remains 2888.

Market Meanderings 04/12/2020

On Wednesday, it looked like the SPX had completed a 5 wave sequence from the 2657.67 low, and was poised to  to move lower. Instead, on Thursday, the SPX opened higher, moved up to 2818.57, and then began to fall back into the close.

If we look at the move from 2657.67, we can see an initial move up to 2729.55. From there the SPX pulled back to 2708.35, before rising again to 2754.09. After another pullback, the index rose again to 2813.07, before another pullback to 2778.76. Looking more closely at the three pullbacks following the 2729.55 high, we have (2729.55, 2708.35), (2754.09, 2729.52), (2813.07, 2778.76), which has an R^2 value of .9999. Given that, the best interpretation is that the SPX formed another inverted corrective wave for wave 4.

Widening out, and then looking at the wave structure from 2447.49 we have (2447.49, 2538.18), (2657.67, 2729.55), (2778.76, 2818.57), which has an R^2 value of .9971, which would satisfy conditions for the completion of that wave. And since that is still within the range that would satisfy a completion of a 5 wave sequence from 2191.86 low, it still appears that the SPX has completed that sequence.

The negative technical picture I elaborated on Wednesday essentially remains the same. On the 15 Minute chart, a negative divergence arose, and near Wednesday's close, the SPX moved to oversold on that chart, and then moved above 50, without moving to a new high. This could possibly be the start of a move down.

The negative divergence on the 60 Minute chart remains, and the Daily chart shows the SPX having moved into overbought territory on the RSI(5). On Wednesday the SPX had remained below 50 on the Weekly chart, but the slight move higher on Thursday brought that above 50 on the RSI(5), one more indication of at least a short term top.

If the SPX continues to move higher, the best interpretation would be to take the entire move from 2657.67 to 2818.57 as wave 3 from the 2447.49 low. The pullback to 2762.36 could then possibly be wave 4. I bring this possibility up, because the minimum projection for wave 5 under this scenario would be 2908, above the 2888 upper limit for a wave 5 from the 2191.86 low. That could indicate that this move has a ways to go on the upside.