Tuesday's Market 07/07/2015

After completing a wave b from 2056.32 Monday at 2059.66, the SPX rallied into the close to 2071.12. A pullback from that high was not unexpected, but the decline soon dropped below the level of wave b to 2044.02. From there the index staged a rally, topping out at 2083.73 shortly before the close.

Looking at the wave structure from last Tuesday’s 2056.32 low gives us 2056.32-2074.28-2059.66-2071.12-2044.02-2083.73. The points (2056.32, 2074.28), (2059.66, 2071.12), (2044.02, 2083.73) yields an R^2 value of .9985. This would appear to complete the corrective wave from that low, below the 2106 target level.

This should mean that the decline should resume from this point, with a target near 1995.

 

Monday's Market 07/06/2015

Last Thursday the SPX completed a 5 wave inverted corrective wave at 2071.31. This appeared to complete wave b of sequence from the 2056.32 low. As it turned out, this was but the first wave of a more complex corrective sequence. After reaching the 2071.31 low, the index rebounded to 2078.91 into Thursday’s close. This morning the SPX opened sharply lower, but held above the 2056.32 low. After falling to 2058.40, the index rallied to 2078.61 before falling back to 2059.66.

Looking at the structure from Tuesday’s 2056.32 low gives us wave a at 2074.28, followed by a complex wave b as 2074.28-2071.31-2078.91-2058.40-2078.61-2059.66. Aside from the formation of a complex wave b, the interpretation remains the same. The SPX should continue to rally until it completes a 5 wave sequence near 2106. This should then be followed by another move lower to 1993+/-.

Longer term the SPX is likely in a corrective sequence from September’s 2019.26 high. This has turned out to be an extremely complex corrective wave, and trading should remain choppy for some time to come. Eventually however the correction should culminate in a move below 1725.

 

Thursday's Market 07/02/2015

Opening decisively higher the SPX pushed to 2085.56 within the first half hour of trading. The gains were short lived, as the index then moved lower. The initial gains were quickly erased, with the SPX hitting a low for the day at 2071.31. The SPX then drifted higher into the close.

From Tuesday’s 2056.32 low the SPX rose nearly 30 points to today’s 2085.56 high. The wave structure from that point indicates that this move is not yet over. The first rise to 2074.28 can be seen as a wave a of a 5 wave corrective sequence. From there the index formed an inverted corrective wave b as 2074.28-2062.12-2078.32-2068.57-2085.06-2071.31. The target for the completion of the sequence from 2056.32 is 2106.58. After that the SPX should once again turn lower.