The SPX opened slightly to the downside today, but
quickly recovered and moved above yesterdays close to 1847.04. This completed a
5 wave sequence following the completion of the semi-inverted corrective wave
yesterday afternoon. From there the index again pulled back, falling to
1841.13. After that the SPX embarked on a more sustained rally, completing a 5
wave sequence to the upside at 1854.53. Another pullback, this time to 1849.93
was followed by three waves to the upside as 1853.51-1850.19-1854.13.
Putting today’s action together with the completed
waves from 1840.19 reveals that a 5 wave sequence from that low may have
completed at today’s 1854.13 close. From that low, Wave 1 completed at 1847.60.
A quite complex semi-inverted corrective wave, which I have been describing the
past two days, then completed a second wave yesterday at 1840.91. This wave
appears to have been Wave A of a continuing Wave 2. Wave B was completed with
the opening move higher, and was followed by the drop to 1841.13 which
completed Wave C. The extended rally
through the afternoon to 1854.53 completed Wave D, with the pullback to 1849.93
Wave E, and finally Wave 2 from 1840.19. The three quick waves into the close
then may have completed Waves 3, 4, and 5.
This count would indicate that a pullback from
here is likely. Until the SPX breaks below 1840.19 it is possible for the index
to move higher, but with a 5 wave sequence from that low, it appears likely
that the next move will be lower. It is also possible that the SPX is still in
Wave3 from 1840.19. The upper boundary for the 5 waves completed scenario is
only slightly above today’s close, so any move to the upside at the open would
suggest this is the case. I would still be looking for a move above 1858.71 to
confirm a move higher is underway.
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