Thursday's Market 02/13/2014

The markets headed lower this morning, with the SPX gapping down, and dropping almost immediately to 1809.22. The negative bias did not last long, as the index quickly reversed, and closed the opening gap by mid-morning. Just before noon the SPX hit 1824.65, where it paused momentarily, and pulled back to 1821.75. Once again the selling soon dried up, and the index continued higher, moving ahead to 1830.25 by mid-afternoon. Another pullback to 1827.29 followed, and then the SPX chopped higher into the close, reaching 1830.15.

Looking at the count once again from Monday’s 1791.83 low, I have made a slight change since yesterday. I had originally been looking at the initial move from 1791.83 to 1799.94 as a single wave. I am now counting this as three waves. This fits the rest of the sub-wave structure better, and shifts the Wave 1 high from 1826.55 to 1822.27. The move from that high to today’s 1809.22 low can then be counted as a 5 wave sequence. This turned out to be the first wave a very complex inverted wave structure. 5 waves can be counted from the 1822.27 high to the 1821.75 low which occurred shortly after noon today. This would be Wave A of the inverted wave, with Wave B carrying the SPX to 1830.25. I have been mentioning 1831 as the upper boundary of my current count from 1850.84. This level held, as the index dropped back, completing Waves C. D, and E, and Wave 2 at 1827.29. The choppiness into the close carried the index once again to just below the 1831 level, and completed Waves 3, 4, and 5 from 1791.83 at 1830.15.

If my current count is to remain intact, the SPX will need to stay below 1831. From the 1850.84 high I have 1835.23 as Wave 1. Wave 2 is being counted as an inverted corrective wave which looks to have completed today as 1849.31-1739.66-1798.03-1791.83-1830.15. My downside target remains at 1679.