It now looks like from the wave 3 low of 1326 from1347, the market is forming an inverted corrective wave 4. At some point we should see a rally of something greater than 7 points on the SPX, and then one final move down. Our lower limit for the wave from 1374 is 1295, so we expect the bottom to be above that.
When this wave terminates, all waves from 1415 will have been resolved, and we could expect a rally.
I can't quite understand your post as to where a bounce might occur. As I write this, SPX is closing around 1305. we've gone a very long way down without some type of strong corrective bounce. History tells me the longer the downside, the sharper the bounce. Is there a bounce due here at these drastically low levels, and what would be the range and duration of the bounce? Thank you
ReplyDeleteHi Vinnie. I was looking at a possible inverted corrective wave, that would terminate with a 7+ point move higher. From there I was looking for one more move to the downside, and then a rally. My target was above 1303, which we did hold, with a rally from there possibly signalling the end of the move from 1415. If that were the case, the rally would be expected to be rather substantial. Although my model does not give projections so early in a wave, I was looking for a move to 1340-1360 minimum. If you read my current post, you'll see I have changed my outlook somewhat. The way the waves are unfolding makes it difficult to pinpoint a bottom. We will be looking for the market to surpass a previous wave 4 high before looking for a rally.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Steve
The 1302-1303 is still the termination point from 1366. If we can hold that level, we could see the rally I was expecting. If we break that level, we would be headed back down in another 5 wave sequence.
ReplyDeleteSteve