Overnight the futures were down quite dramatically, putting in jeopardy the bounce we were looking for today. The SPX opened lower, dropping to 1364 before quickly recovering to 1370 and turning positive for the day. From there the market dropped back to 1367 moved back towards 1370, and then fell to the low for the day at 1363.94. The market then experienced the bounce a bounce, spending the rest of the morning, and early afternoon trending higher, reaching 1373.90 by 2:00PM.The last two hours of the session found the market moving lower once again, falling back to 1368.48 before moving slightly higher into the close.
We believe the drop this morning was a continuation of the move from Friday’s 1372.41 afternoon high. To us this looked like wave 2 of an inverted corrective wave from the 1367.96 low from Friday. This corrective sequence completed at today’s high of 1373.91. If we are correct that would complete wave 4 of the sequence from 1415.32. This would mean that wave 5 of that sequence is underway now, and we believe this will take the market down to 1331.
We’ve included a chart of how we believe the entire wave sequence from 1422 will play out. This is based on the wave sequence thus far, and the points that best fit our model. After the drop to 1331 for wave 3, we see the market rising again to 1411, before falling once more to 1320. These projections were developed using my main model criteria, along with several others that I have been developing. Again, waves can, and do, develop in many different ways. This is simply my interpretation of the wave structure, and the most likely outcome at the moment. It should be taken as nothing more or less.
No comments:
Post a Comment