Wednesday's Market 10/30/2013

As has almost become the norm, the SPX gapped higher to a fresh all time high, and then pulled back. After a 5 point drop the index tried to stage a rally, but breaking recent form the SPX then continued lower. The index drifted lower until the FOMC announcement, then bounced 6 points before heading for the lows of the day. The index moved down to 1757 before making it back up to 1766. The SPX then faded into the close.

This morning’s high of 1775.22 completed a 5 wave sequence from the 1740.50 low. This wave had been difficult to follow, but now seems to be 1758.46-1753.21-1764.99-1768.21-1775.22, with wave 4 being an inverted corrective wave. From the 1646.47 low, I count 3 waves. The first part of this wave counts best as a complete sequence from that low to 1758.16. The drop to 1740.50 was wave 2, and today’s high completed wave 3. If this afternoon’s low was wave 4, it would project wave 5 to complete between 1779 and 1798, with an optimal target of 1788. There are still several possibilities, so the next couple of days bear close watching.

At the moment it still seems most likely that the SPX will make one more high for this move, with a target of 1788, before a pullback. If this scenario does play out, there should be at least one more move higher before the sequence from 1077.74 concludes.

Near term support is at 1753, and then 1744.

Tuesday's Market 10/29/2013

The market continued its incessant climb today, hitting a fresh all time high once again. It seems that nothing can derail this freight train, or even slow it down. But the SPX is reaching some critical levels from my point of view, and this could get interesting very soon.

There is not much one can say about today’s market. The SPX gapped higher to a new all time high, pulled back a few points, and then moved steadily higher to close at another all time high of 1771.90. I have been expecting some sort of pullback, but so far none has been forthcoming. For some time now I have been pointing to 1776 as a minimum level for the completion of a sequence from the October 2011 low of 1074.77. Things seemed pretty clear when the SPX reached the 1560.33 low back in June, but things have been a bit muddled since. After the index reached 1710, and then fell to 1627, I described an ending scenario that would go something like 1745-1680-1776 to complete the sequence. The SPX fell short of that 1745 level, with the next top reaching only 1730. This complicated matters, and I began looking at a more complex end to this sequence. If this current move carries above 1776 this scenario may come back into play. If the SPX rises above 1796 this becomes a real possibility. A move above 1776 would also bring one other count into play that would suggest an end to the sequence from 1074.77.

For the moment it still seems likely that this market will eventually find a short term top, pullback, and then move to new highs. But a move above 1776, followed by a move below 1740, could signal a longer term top has been put in.

FOMC meeting days have been interesting, and this should be no exception.

Monday's Market 10/28/2013

The SPX hit another all time high today, something that has become commonplace these days. The market has once again entered a stage where it seems that it will never go down, a stage it has been in several times during this bull run. The market will, of course, go down, but it has become a dangerous game to try to pinpoint when. I have underestimated this latest rise in the market, with my 1745 target having been taken out several days ago, with very little pressure to the downside. I was early in calling for a possible downward move, as it has become apparent that 1745 was not the completion of this sequence from 1646.47.

This sequence is reminiscent of the rise from 1627 to 1730. Both contained choppy upside moves, with very few pullbacks of any consequence. Looking at the end of that move, from the 1704.95 high on September 16^th, the action is quite similar to the action from the recent 1759.33 high. Both highs were followed by a small pullback, followed by new highs which formed in a very narrow upward biased channel. The previous move was then followed by another small pullback, and then a sharp move to new highs that proved to be the precursor of a nearly 85 point pullback. This is noteworthy as both have occurred leading into an FOMC meeting.

Looking at this sequence from the 1646.47 low, the most predominant feature is the inverted corrective wave which formed between 1703.44 and 1740.50. Those have been the only significant pullbacks of this rally. The most likely scenario is that the move from 1646.47 to 1703.44 was wave 1 of this sequence. The inverted corrective wave would then be wave 2. From that low, it is possible that wave 3 ended at 1758.46, wave 4 was the small pullback to 1752.45, and the SPX is now in wave 5 of that sequence. The target for this scenario would be between current levels and 1773. It is also possible that the move from 1740.50 to current levels is wave 3, which would be followed by a pullback, and then one more move higher. This would be similar to the scenario I described above.

For now, a move below 1740.50 would most likely signal an end of this sequence. Until then it is difficult to fight the momentum. 

Wednesday's Market 10/23/2013

The SPX gapped down at the open this morning, dropping below 1742. After staging a small rally, the index continued lower, dropping back to 1742, rallying to 1746, and finally reaching a low of 1740.50. This completed a 5 wave sequence from yesterday afternoon’s 1758.16 high. As has been the pattern lately, the SPX reversed course by late morning, and started working its way higher. The index rallied to 1746.66, fell back to 1742.51, and then rallied again to 1748.39 by mid-afternoon. The SPX then fell back to 1744.72 before moving higher into the close. This may have formed waves 1-4 of a sequence to the upside.

This would be interesting because it would give a target for wave 5 of 1750-1751. After yesterday’s pullback to 1747.58 after the 1759.33 high, the SPX completed three waves to the upside at 1755.51-1751.91-1758.16. If a sequence from today’s low completes at 1750-1751, it would complete an inverted corrective wave from the 1747.58 low. This would indicate a continuation of the move lower to follow.

I am still looking for the SPX to move lower. There are several support levels between 1719 and 1661 that would fit the target range for this low. Short term, it looks like the SPX may open higher, to 1750-1751, to complete an inverted corrective wave from 1747.58. This would set the stage for another move lower, with support at 1719.

Tuesday's Market 10/22/2013

Well that was a big miss. I had been looking at yesterday’s 1747.79 high as the completion of a 5 wave sequence from the 1646.47 low. That certainly was not the case. While today’s move above that high would normally point to the continuation of the current trend, I will remain cautiously neutral at the moment, as there is a chance that a sequence from 1646.47 concluded today.

The suspense did not last long this morning, as the SPX gapped higher at the open and surpassed yesterday’s high within the first minute of trading. From there the index rose above 1751 before a very small pullback. After that the SPX shot up to 1759.33. It appeared this spike higher would be short lived, as the index quickly reversed course and dropped back near the opening levels to 1747.58. The SPX then chopped higher through the afternoon, making it above 1758 before falling back to 1754 near the close.

Looking at the waves from yesterday’s 1747.79 high, the SPX completed 3 waves to the downside at 1740.67 as I mentioned yesterday. This was followed by a single sequence to today’s high of 1759.33. The index then completed a sequence lower with the ensuing drop to 1747.58. After that low was put in, it appears the index completed 3 waves to the upside.

Re-evaluating my count from 1695.93, I still see wave 1 completing at 1704.01. This was followed by an inverted corrective wave 2 that completed at 1714.12, with wave 3 then completing at 1729.64. I had been counting wave 4 at 1725.93, with wave 5 completing at 1747.79. If that count is correct, the 3 waves down yesterday from that high, and the drop today from 1759.33 would complete an inverted corrective wave, meaning another move to the upside would be in order.

It is also possible that from wave 3 mentioned above, an inverted corrective wave 4 followed. This would have ended at yesterday’s low of 1740.67. Today’s high of 1759.33 would then be wave 5. This would be unusual since normally there is only one complex corrective wave in a sequence, but with wave 2 being a complex wave also, this would make two. But this has been a strange market, so it cannot be ruled out.

A move above today’s high would mean the first scenario is correct, a drop below today’s low of 1748 the second. My next resistance level would be 1776. This is a level at which the sequence from 1074.77 could possibly complete. At the moment I see this as a low probability, but it is worth noting.

Support is at 1723, and then 1703.

Monday's Market 10/21/2013

The SPX started off to the upside this morning, hitting another all time high of 1745.88. After a small pullback that closed the gap up open, the index hit another all time high, and the high of the day at 1747.79. This means my short term count from last Tuesday’s 1695.93 low was wrong. My original count from that low, which I changed on Friday, actually turned out to be correct. The high of 1747.79 then completed the sequence from that low, and a sequence from the 1646.47 low. From today’s high, the market completed a sequence down at 1741.71, a sequence up at 1745.41, another sequence down at 1740.82, and what appears to be another sequence up at 1744.52.

With a 5 wave sequence seemingly completed from the 1646.47 low, the SPX is at a decision point. A breakout to the downside here will likely signal a change in the short term trend, while a break above today’s high will most likely mean a continuation of this short term upward move. I have been looking for a top from 1646 to occur near 1745, and then be followed by a move lower to possibly 1680. This would fit my longer term outlook as I outlined over the weekend. A move above these levels would not alter that long term count, but would change some of the target levels. If the SPX does move higher, I will update my targets.

Support is at 1723, 1703, and then 1680.

Weekend Outlook 10/20/2013

This week the SPX continued its seemingly relentless march to new highs. The index now stands nearly 700 points above the October 2011 low of 1074.77, and almost 1100 points higher than the 666.79 low of March 2009. The range of opinions as to where the market goes from here varies widely; some believe the run from 666.79 has been a corrective wave, with the market soon headed towards zero. Perhaps these are followers of Terence McKenna’s Time Wave Zero (http://www.levity.com/eschaton/waveexplain.html).  Others believe this rally will continue ad infinitum due to FED intervention. I believe the reality lies somewhere in between, with a medium term top near, but not imminent.

My analysis is based on a model I have developed, which I call the 5 Wave Model. Although there are similarities to Elliott Wave Theory, this is not EW. My model postulates that all movements of the market can be broken down into 5 waves, with a specific relationship developing between waves 1, 3, and 5 that indicate the termination of a “wave”, or trend. A specific proportionality manifests itself between these waves at the termination point of a 5 wave sequence.

Last week I mentioned a similarity between the current wave structure from the 1074.77 low, and that of the uptrend from October 2002 until October 2007, so I will start there. In addition to my wave counts, I have also numbered each wave of the uptrend consecutively for discussion purposes. The first thing to notice is that the uptrend consisted of 17 individual waves. The first 5 waves of the structure were 954.28-788.90-1015.33-960.84-1163.23. Since these 5 waves only had a correlation value of .96, it did not signal the end of a sequence. In fact, the first 5 waves that complete a sequence are waves 6-10. This sequence goes 1163.23-1060.72-1217.90-1136.15-1245.86-1168.20, and has a correlation value of .998. Since the impulse waves of this sequence, waves 1, 3, and 5 were to the downside, with the larger trend being up, this considered a corrective wave. With the end point of the fifth wave completing above the end point of the first, I call this an inverted corrective wave. After the completion of this sequence, the SPX rallied to 1326.70. Evaluating waves 2-3, 4-5, and 10-11, my model gives a correlation value of .999, once again signaling the completion of a 5 wave sequence. Then looking at waves 1-2, 11-12, and 13-14, the correlation is .9998, meaning the termination of another sequence, this time an inverted corrective wave. Finally then, from the October 2002 low of 768.63 to 1, 14-15, and 16-17, which takes us to the October 2007 high of 1576.09, my model shows a correlation of .9996, once again giving the end point of a 5 wave sequence.

In my 5 Wave Model vernacular this counts as 1-A-1-2-3-A-B-C-D-E(4)-5(B)-C-D-E(2)-3-4-5. This gives a total of 17 waves in which the first, third, and fifth wave of each sequence show a specific relationship.

Next, I will look at the current wave structure from the October 2011 1074.77 low. Again I have overlaid a consecutive numbering system for discussion purposes. In the last wave, the structure started with a 1-A, followed by a 1-2-3 of one lesser degree. In this case wave 4 was the inverted corrective wave. This wave began with a 1-A, and was followed by a 1-A of one lesser degree. Wave 2 in this example proved to be the inverted corrective wave. In both examples, at the eleventh wave of the sequence, each wave had completed Wave B of an inverted corrective Wave 2 from the starting low. From that point, the current wave has gone on to complete Wave C at 1646.47, and now is at a level that would complete Wave D, or the 13^th wave of what should be a total of 17 waves. As I have previously indicated, I would expect this wave to complete near 1680, and should hold above 1646.47. This would complete Wave2 from the 1074.77 low, and I would expect Waves 3, 4, and 5 to the upside to complete the entire sequence.

Finally, I also suggested last week that the Dow was on the same count as the SPX, but that while I expected the SPX to hold above its previous low, I do not expect the Dow to do the same. Both the SPX and the Dow have so far completed Waves 1-A-1-A-B-C-D-E(2)-3-4-5(B)-C, and possibly Wave D. Both indices are in inverted corrective waves, and these waves can complete in different fashions. For these indices to maintain the needed relationship between Waves A, C, and E of this sequence, the SPX would need to hold above its previous low, while the Dow would have to move below it.

This could all change of course if the current rally from SPX 1646.47 continues. At the moment I would say that this wave will most likely end around current levels, setting up this diverging scenario.

Support is at 1723, 1703, and then 1680.

Friday's Market 10/18/2013

The SPX opened higher this morning, gapping up to 1738.69, and then continuing on to 1741.21 after a brief pullback. My count from Tuesday’s 1695.93 low has been a bit messy, with it now looking like wave 1 from that low completed at 1721.75. An inverted corrective wave 2 was next, and ended yesterday at 1725.93. Today’s higher open then completed wave 3. This was followed by a pullback to 1735.74. From there, the SPX rose steadily to complete wave 5. The index completed waves 1, 2, and 3 to the upside, which was then followed by an inverted corrective wave 4. This completed at 1742.82. Wave 5 then carried the index to a new all-time high at 1745.31.

This appears to complete a sequence from the 1695.93 low, which in turn completes a sequence from the 1646.47 low. I have been pointing to the 1745 level as a possible termination level for this wave, and it appears to have done just that. I would now expect the SPX to move lower, possibly down to 1680.

Looking at the longer term count, the SPX looks to have completed Wave D of an inverted corrective wave 2 from the October 2011 high of 1292.66. A move to 1680 would complete that corrective wave, and then be followed by waves 3, 4, and 5 to the upside.

Many have noted the continuing divergence between the SPX and the Dow recently. I have also been analyzing the Dow charts in an effort to account for the divergence. I have the two indices on the exact same count, with one important difference. Both, by my count, are in, or have just completed wave D of an inverted corrective wave. As I have discussed before, these waves can resolve themselves in several forms. Wave D on the SPX has now moved beyond Wave B. Thus I would expect Wave E to complete above the level of Wave C, or 1646.47. Another form the last three waves of this corrective wave can take is a zig-zag. It appears this is what is taking place on the Dow. Wave D does not look like it will move beyond Wave B, and this means that Wave E should complete lower than Wave C. In this scenario the Dow could make a new near term low, falling below 14719.43, while the SPX should hold above its previous low of 1646.47. It should make for an interesting market.

I will try to elaborate on all of the above over the weekend. 

Thursday's Market 10/17/2013

The SPX opened to the downside this morning, falling to 1714.12. It appears I was a bit premature yesterday in calling for the completion of an inverted corrective wave at 1715.19. I would now say that 1715 was only wave C of that wave, with the bounce to 1722 being Wave D. The lower opening today would then be Wave E, and completed the inverted corrective wave 2 from Tuesday’s 1695.93 low. After the opening drop, the SPX rallied, moving to 1729.64. This looks to complete Wave 3, and was then followed by a drop to 1725.96 that would seem to complete Wave 4. The index rallied once again off that low, rising to a new all-time high of 1733.45 before fading into the close.

With 4 waves seemingly completed from the 1695.93 low, all that is left now is the completion of wave 5. This wave should complete above 1741, with an optimal target of 1746. This is very close to my ongoing target of 1745 for the completion f the wave from 1646.47. Yesterday I said I was leaning towards an alternate count for that wave, which now seems to be playing out. It is possible that 3 waves completed at 1662.47, as opposed to the single wave I had been counting. These 3 waves may have completed as 1646.47-1654.69-1651.02-1662.47. This was followed by an inverted corrective wave 4, which went 1654.81-1703.44-1692.13-1711.57-1695.93. This count yields an optimal target of 1745. Thus it appears quite likely that the sequence from 1646.47 will complete between 1741 and 1752, with 1745-1746 being the optimal target.

If this wave does complete within that range, I would then expect the SPX to move lower. As a rough estimate, I would be looking for a low near 1680. This fits well with my longer term count from 1074.77. I still do not see this as the end of this longer term sequence, but a continuation of the converging upward trend that has been in place since the 1560.33 low.

Support remains at 1723, and then 1703. A move below 1714 at this point could signal the end of this move.

Wednesday's Market 10/16/2013

The SPX opened higher this morning, jumping above 1710, and then continuing higher until it reached 1721.75. After that the index worked lower into the afternoon, falling to 1715.19 before rising near the high of the day towards the close.

The higher opening this morning supports the alternate count I discussed yesterday that an inverted corrective wave completed yesterday at 1695.93. The late afternoon rise to 1704.46 then completed a wave 1, with the pullback becoming wave A of an inverted corrective wave. Wave B of this wave completed at today’s high of 1721.75, very close to the 1723 resistance level I have been mentioning. The meandering pullback into the afternoon completed waves C, D, and E, and thus wave 2 from yesterday’s 1695.93 low. This means the SPX should now complete waves 3, 4, and 5 to the upside.

Looking at the count from the 1646.47 low, it does look like an inverted corrective wave completed from 1662.47 to 1695.93. I have added this count to the chart, which is denoted by the use of parentheses. This count continues to point to higher prices, and my target remains 1745. 1723 would be the last resistance level suggested by the previous wave structure, and if that level is cleared the SPX should be headed to new highs. Support is at 1703, and then 1685.

While it is difficult to pinpoint the exact high of this move at the moment, I have been looking for it to be above the previous high of 1729.86, with an optimal target of 1745. 

Tuesday's Market 10/15/2013

The SPX started the day to the downside, continuing the pullback from yesterday’s 1711.03 high.  After dropping to 1701.03, the index started to move higher, and made the high of the day at 1711.57. This was slightly above yesterday’s high, and right at the 1711-1713 level I pointed to in yesterday’s post as a possible high. This did not happen exactly as I thought, but the level turned out to be correct none the less. From there the SPX started to sell off, dropping back below 1700 to 1695.93 an hour before the close. The last hour saw the SPX rise to 1704.46 before settling back to 1698.06.

Continuing the count from last Wednesday’s low of 1646.47, today’s high would appear to be wave B of an inverted corrective wave, followed by wave C at 1695.93. If the move to 1704.46 was wave D, wave E would project to 1690. If D has not ended, the market should be higher from here before starting wave E down.

Considering today’s nearly 16 point drop from 1711.57 to 1695.93, another count has presented itself. The three largest pullbacks since 1646.47 have been 1662.47-1654.81, or slightly less than 8 points, 1703.44-1692.13, or 11 points, and 1711.57-1695.93, or 16 points. This may have completed an inverted corrective wave, and would point to a target of 1745.

I continue to see this market moving higher, with a target for this wave of 1745. Considering everything that is going on in Washington at the moment it is difficult to have absolute conviction on anything, but my wave count points to higher prices. There may be a continuation of the pullback before the index moves higher, but I would expect this to remain above 1685. A move below this level would mean my current assumptions are wrong.

Resistance is at 1703, and then 1723, with support at 1685, and then 1669.

Monday's Market 10/14/2013

Last Friday the SPX opened slightly lower, and then rallied to 1703.44. After a slight pullback, the index tested that high, but failed to surpass it. This was right at the 1703 resistance level. After failing to move above that resistance, the SPX opened sharply lower this morning, dropping to 1692.13 a few minutes after the open. This represented the largest pullback since this move higher began at 1646.47. That proved to be the low for the day, as the index continued to move relentlessly higher from that low, with the SPX moving above the 1703 resistance level, and continuing higher to 1711.03. From there the index moved slightly lower into the close.

The action today, after the 1692.13 morning low, looks like 4 waves higher, with an inverted corrective wave 2. I would project wave 5 of this sequence to end between 1711 and 1713. If my count from the 1646.47 low is correct, this should complete wave B of an inverted corrective wave 2. I have wave 1 as being the move from 1646.47 to Wednesday’s 1662.47 high. Wave A of the inverted corrective wave was the move from that high to 1654.81. The SPX has been in wave B of 2 since that point. If this is correct, the index should move slightly higher, to between 1711, and 1713, and then experience a pullback. Since this has not yet completed a 5 wave sequence from the 1646.47, I still expect the index to move higher, with 1745 being a likely target. If the SPX moves above 1713 without a pullback, another count may come into play that would target a high near 1740.

Starting last Monday, I have been mentioning that my longer term count from 1074.77 still requires some work to the upside to complete. As a picture is sometimes easier to visualize than words I have included a chart showing how I see this wave completing. This should not be taken as target prices or times, but simply the waves need to complete the sequence. By my count, the SPX is in Wave D of 2 from 1074.77. Again, these waves can complete in several ways, so these are not meant to be targets.

It is interesting to compare this chart to the chart from October 2002 until October 2007. The two are strikingly similar, and again, serves as a visualization as to how this wave will complete.

Thursday's Market 10/10/2013

After testing the 1651 support level yesterday, and completing a 5 wave sequence to the downside from the 1729.86 high, the SPX rallied from that level, moving to 1662 during the afternoon. With a small pullback to finish the day on Wednesday, it looked like the market was set to rally. Rally it did today, gapping higher at the open, and reaching 1682 by mid-morning. It soon reached the 1685 resistance level, and then traded sideways until the last hour of trading. The SPX hit 1692.48, pulled back slightly, and then rose into the close.

I had set an initial target near 1700 for this move to the upside, which the market has nearly reached. From the 1646.47 low yesterday, it looks like the SPX completed the first wave higher yesterday at 1662.47. It appears that the pullback yesterday afternoon may have been wave 2, with wave 3 occurring this morning as the index rose to 1685.43. The sideways actions followed by the rise to 1692.48, and then the pullback to 1688.91 looks to then have completed an inverted corrective wave 4. This means a wave 5 would be expected next. Given the above scenario, the optimal target for wave 5 would be 1745. Some of you may recall 1745 as my target for the last uptrend. That time the market fell short of the target, but it is interesting how numbers seem to re-appear time after time. We’ll see if the SPX makes it to that level this time.

Since my longer term count has changed, the 1776 minimal target for the completion of the sequence from 1074.77 no longer applies. However, after the 1745 target I am expecting one more move higher, so we may still see that number.

Short term resistance is at 1703, and then 1723. Support remains at 1685, 1668, and then 1651.

Wednesday's Market 10/09/2013

The SPX opened slightly higher today, but quickly gave back those gains to move lower. Yesterday I said that a 5 wave sequence from the 1730 may have ended, but could move slightly lower, with the 1651 support level being critical. The index did test that support level, dropping below it to 1646.47, but then recovered. It appears that for now that level has held. From that low the SPX formed a 5 wave sequence higher to 1642.47. The first three waves completed as 1651.06-1649.47-1654.69. This was followed by an inverted corrective wave 4 that terminated at 1657.68. The fifth wave of this sequence then subdivided, and completed at 1642.47. It looks like three waves down completed at 1654.81. This would suggest an inverted corrective wave is forming, which would allow the SPX to move higher.

With the 1651 support level holding, it seems likely that the sequence from 1730 has completed, and I would expect a move higher. I am still looking at the 1700 area as an initial target.

Happy Birthday John.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmZ2ICOZ8mo

Tuesday's Market 10/08/2013

I apologize for my dearth of posts lately. It has been a hectic month. I will try to get up to speed.

In my previous posts, I had stated that I was looking for a move to 1745, followed by a pullback to possibly 1680, and then another move higher to 1776 to complete a 5 wave sequence from the October 2011 low of 1074.77. That obviously to this point has not come to pass. The SPX fell short of my 1745 target, topping at 1729.86, and now has retreated to 1655. I still believe the sequence from 1074.77 has not completed, and the market should make at least one more move to new highs to complete that sequence.

The completion of this wave appears to be even more complex than I had originally thought. The above chart shows my original thought for this wave. This had the first three waves of the sequence completing as 1292.66-1158.66-1422.38, which was then followed by an inverted corrective wave 4 which completed at 1560.33. I was then looking for 5 waves to complete above 1776 to complete wave 5 from 1074.77.

Instead, it appears that the first 3 waves were not waves 1, 2, and 3 of a sequence, but rather Wave 1, Wave A of an inverted corrective wave, and another Wave 1. The move that completed at 1729.86 was the end of a 5 wave sequence from 1158.66, and thus Wave B of the inverted corrective wave. As I have stated in the past, Waves C, D, and E can then complete either as a zig-zag formation, or with Wave D carrying above Wave B (1729.86), to be then followed by Wave E. If this turns out to be the case, the SPX would then still have to complete Waves 3, 4, and 5 to the upside to complete the sequence from 1074.77.

So that would be the current long term count, which leaves us with the shorter term count. The SPX looks like it completed a 5 wave sequence from the 1729.86 high today. Wave 1 completed at 1720.20, and was followed by an inverted corrective wave to 1703.85. The move lower to 1674.99 then completed the third wave. After bouncing up to 1695.55 for the fourth wave, the move today to 1655.03 would complete the sequence.

A lot of information I know. For now, I believe a 5 wave sequence from 1729.86 has completed, or is about to complete. An initial target for this next move higher would be 1700, with resistance at 1668, and then 1685. I would like to see a move above 1668 to confirm the low is in place, and if the 1651 support level does not hold, I would need to re-evaluate the count.