Thursday, July 11, 2013

Thursday's Market 07/11/2013

It was another gap up open for the SPX today. And today I am not just making a joke. After that gap up open, the SPX moved to 1671.00 before falling back. The index slipped to 1666.29 before resuming the rally. First, the SPX made a slightly higher high at 1671.03, and then fell back to 1668.35. After moving sideways into the early afternoon, the SPX began to rally again, and quickly moved to 1675.08. After another small pullback, the index continued to move higher into the close, topping at 1676.63.


Yesterday I said that I was looking for a move higher, giving a target of 1666, and then expected a small pullback before another move higher. The SPX did open higher, moving slightly higher than my target, but the pullback from that high stopped at 1666.

It would appear that the open to 1671.00 completed the 5th wave from yesterday afternoon’s 1647.66 low. By my count, that was Wave 3 from 1604.57. The small pullback that followed was most likely Wave 4, with Wave 5 from 1604.57 now underway. I expect this wave to end at 1689-1690. If the SPX moves to this level, I would then expect the 20 point or so correction I spoke of yesterday.

On a cautionary note, the sequence from 1647.66 to 1671.00 contained no complex corrective wave. Often this results in a secondary sequence forming, and such a sequence may have topped this afternoon at 1676.63. If the SPX falls below 1672.77, this would be the most likely scenario. I would expect support to be at 1670, and then 1661.

I am looking for the SPX to move to 1689-1690. Support should be at 1670, and then 1661.

Thank you.


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