The SPX moved lower at the open, falling to
1605.19, before rallying to 1614.64. This rally fell just short of the 1614.95
high I was looking for the index to surpass to initiate a further rally. After
being turned back from that level, the SPX dropped to 1607, rallied back to
1614, then fell to 1598.23. At that point the SPX did stage a rally. It moved
steadily higher, in a choppy uptrend, until it hit 1614.45, again, just shy of
the critical 1614.95 level. After a small pullback the SPX finally broke
through that level, rising to 1617.29. A small pullback followed, and the SPX
moved to the high of the day at 1622.24.
The move to 1598.23 completes now completes a 5
wave sequence for this move lower. This is best counted from the 1674.21 high,
as the SPX formed the sequence 1674.21-1640.05-1661.91-1622.72-1646.53-1598.23.
This gives a model value of .9988.
From the 1598.23 low, the SPX has been forming a
more complex sequence. Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4 of a sequence formed at
1598.23-1603.76-1599.41-1607.86-1603.56. Wave 5 of this sequence included a
double extension, as Wave 1 of 5 broke down as
1603.56-1607.99-1606.52-1610.44-1606.82-1610.94. The rest of Wave 5 completed
as 1606.82-1610.94-1608.86-1614.45-1611.89-1617.29. From there, it appears an
inverted corrective wave is forming, which indicates that the SPX should move
higher.
This move from the 1598.23 low should end near
1645. At that point the market should once again move lower.
Thank you.
No comments:
Post a Comment