The SPX opened lower today, falling to 1633.74
before trying to rally. The index rose to 1640.80 fairly quickly, but at that
point the rally stalled. The SPX began to fall again, moving down to 1628.63
with barely a bounce. The index then traded in a choppy range, before once
again moving lower, dropping to 1623.96. The SPX then rallied to 1631, dipped
to 1626, then rallied again to 1632. After that the index slipped to 1625.13,
before rising slightly into the close.
After the opening dip, the market rallied to
1640.80. This completed the move from yesterday’s 1608.07 low, moving slightly
above yesterday’s high. I had mentioned that it was possible to move slightly
higher, and this move still fits within the scenario I outlined yesterday. The
drop to 1628.63 then completed a 5 Wave sequence from that high, which was
followed by an inverted corrective wave to 1628.56. The move to 1623.96 then
completed a higher degree sequence from 1640.80.
From there, it appears that the SPX moved higher
in three waves, 1623.96-1630.51-1626.11-1631.55, which seemingly is the start
of an inverted corrective wave. The SPX then completed a sequence to the
downside, which finished slightly above the 1623.96 low.
It is still most likely that the SPX is in the
third wave of a 5 Wave sequence that will complete near 1561. Support is at
1619, and then 1611. A move above 1648.69 would put this count in jeopardy, and
a move above 1674.21 would invalidate it.
Thank you.
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