It has been fairly apparent that my count from SPX
1358 has not been correct. I had been counting the move from 1563.62 to 1538.57
as the completion of Waves 3, 4, and 5 from 1370.58. I was then expecting Waves
3, 4, and 5 higher to complete the sequence from 666.79.
From 1538.57 I counted three waves up to 1573.66
(1538.57-1564.91-1546.22-1573.66), three waves down to 1540.29
(1573.66-1549.80-1562.60-1540.29, three waves up
(1540.29-1573.89-1567.97-1597.35). All of these three wave sequences, without completing
a 5 Wave sequence, is quite unexpected. The action from 1563.62 has been more
reminiscent of the unwinding of inverted corrective waves. It is now my opinion
that the move from the 1074.77 low has contained many more nested waves than I
originally thought. Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4 as labeled in pink on my Daily and
Weekly chart now appear to be a series of nested ones. The current move lower
from the 1597.35 high should be waves 3, 4, and 5 from 1292.66 (Pink Wave 1).
Once this sequence has completed, the market would need to move higher to
complete the sequence from 1074.77. This would be followed by a correction to
complete the inverted corrective sequence from 1370.58, and another move higher
to complete the sequence from 666.79.
Today the market gapped lower, falling to 1558
before attempting a rally. That attempt did not last long, as the SPX worked
its way lower, finally settling at 1543.69. At that point the market did move
higher, rising to 1555 before settling back into the close.
The SPX completed a 5 Wave sequence from 1575.38
at 1546.08, which became Wave 1 of a larger degree sequence. After a move
higher to 1551.93, the market fell to 1543.69, to complete this higher degree
sequence. The market then moved higher, and completed a 4 Wave sequence at
1555.15.
From 1597.35 the market has completed three 5 Wave
sequences, 1597.35-1552.58-1575.35-1543.69. There are several possibilities at
this point. If the market moves lower at the open, a drop to 1535 would
complete a 5 Wave sequence from 1597.35. I would then expect a move higher,
followed by one more move lower. If the market continues to rally off today’s
low, I would expect it not to exceed 1575, and be followed by another move
lower to 1530-1485. If the market moves below 1530 at the open, the SPX should
bottom above 1485, with that being the low from 1597.35, and the beginning of
the next rally.
Thank you.
No comments:
Post a Comment