Wednesday's Market 04/03/2013

Yesterday I wrote this:

“The second scenario would be slightly more bearish. If the market moves slightly lower, between 1560.40, and 1562.90, it is possible that an inverted corrective Wave 2 from 1563.95 has completed. From there, a rise to 1564.70-1565.40 could complete a 5 Wave sequence from 1538.57, and Wave 3 from 666.79. I would then expect a correction, which will hold above 1538.57, followed by one more wave moving above 1565. That would complete a 5 Wave sequence from 666.79 and portend a more severe correction.”

 

After a slightly higher open to 1571.47, the market began to pull back. Soon the SPX found itself at 1562.85. This was within the first range mentioned above. The high from that point was 1564.86. Again, within the range mentioned above. The market then quickly fell below the previous low of 1562.85, and it was down from there, with only feeble rally attempts until it reached 1552. From there the market rallied to 1537 before falling once again. Soon the market hit the low of the day at 1549.80, and then rallied slightly into the close.

Given the narrow ranges that this wave had to fall into, I have to say I was a bit surprised when the SPX actually moved exactly within those ranges. Admittedly, the wave itself is a bit odd looking, but at the moment my best interpretation is that SPX completed a 5 Wave sequence today from 1538.37 at 1564.86, and Wave 3 from 666.79.

 

I will break down the entire wave structure over the weekend, but for now the main sequence turned out to be 1538.57-1561.56-1545.90-1564.91-1546.22-1564.86, and a model value of .9975.

From the 1564.86 high, the market then completed a 5 Wave sequence down 1549.80. This wave again contained an inverted corrective Wave 2, and breaks down as 1564.86-1562.62-1557.36-1553.85-1554.54-1549.80. This sequence gives a model value of .9978.

With Wave 3 from 666.79 most likely completed, I would expect Wave 4 down, followed by a Wave 5 higher to ensue. Wave 4 may have completed today at 1549.80, but could move lower. This wave needs only to hold above the 1538.57 low. Wave 5 will most likely be quick. If Wave 4 did end today Wave 5 should reach 1567, but go as high as 1591. I will be looking for a 5 Wave move higher, and then a break below 1549.80. A break below 1538.57 at this point would mean the sequence from 666.79 has completed.

Thank you.