Wednesday's Market 11/27/2013

Taken in conjunction with today’s trading, I was likely mistaken on yesterday’s short term count. In this context the move from 1800.77 to 1808.42 looks to be a single 5 wave sequence. This would make the rise to 1805.32 from Monday’s 1800.58 low a wave 1. The drop to 1800.77 would then be wave A of an inverted corrective wave. Yesterday’s afternoon climb to 1808.42 and fall to 1802.97 would be waves B and C. Today the SPX moved higher off that low, completing a 5 wave sequence at 1808.27. A sequence lower followed, and completed at 1802.77. These are waves 4 and 5, thus completing the inverted corrective wave. Another rise to 1807.59 appears to be a lesser degree wave 1, which in itself was followed by an inverted corrective wave 2 which completed at 1807.04.

This count would suggest the SPX should break out to the upside, with my target remaining between 1828, and 1845. I am not ruling out one more push to the downside, but I see an upside breakout as more probable.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving, and be safe.

Tuesday's Market 11/26/2013

This morning the SPX continued to move higher off yesterday afternoon’s 1800.58 low. The index made it above 1805, and then turned lower, just barely staying above that low at 1800.77. These would turn out to be waves 1, and A of a 5 wave sequence to the upside. The SPX then spent much of the rest of the day completing wave B of the inverted corrective wave 2. This wave formed 5 distinct lower degree waves, with the first carrying the index to 1805.27. After a 2 point pullback, the SPX moved to almost 1807. Following another small pullback the index completed the 5^th wave of wave B at 1807.79. The SPX then pulled back to 1806, rose to 1808, and then pulled back to 1807. These formed waves C, D, and E of the inverted corrective wave, and wave 2 from yesterday’s low. Quick moves to 1808.30, 1807.95, and 1808.42 completed the sequence at a new all time high. After spending most of the day trying to move higher, the SPX gave back almost all of its gains in the last half hour, dropping from 1808.42 to 1802.97. This appears to have completed in a 5 wave sequence.

Although the SPX finished little changed from yesterday, it still appears that yesterday’s low marked the end of wave 4 from 1746.20, with today forming waves 1 and at least part of 2 of a the final 5 wave sequence. As I mentioned yesterday, the index could still move lower, to perhaps 1783 without affecting the 1828 final target.

I am still looking for a high between 1828 and 1845 to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1074.77.

Monday's Market 11/25/2013

The market opened this holiday week with a gap higher to a new all time high. The holiday mood was short-lived, as the SPX moved down from that early morning high, and never recovered. The index completed three waves down from that high at 1803.89, and then tried to recover. With an hour and a half of trading left, the SPX clawed back to 1807.47, but then quickly moved to new daily lows at 1800.58 before recovering slightly into the close.

From last Wednesday’s 1777.23 low, the SPX had completed four waves of a 5 wave sequence to the upside last Friday. The gap open to 1808.10 completed the fifth wave. Today the index completed a sequence down from that low.

Widening out to the bigger picture, my count has the SPX now in wave 5 from the October 2011 low of 1074.77. Wave 4 of this sequence completed at 1560.33. From 1560, the index has also completed 4 waves, with that wave completing at 1746.20. From that low, the SPX completed the third wave today at 1808.10, and possibly the 4^th wave at today’s low of 1800.58.

I have been targeting this wave to complete above 1828, and so far nothing has occurred to change that. In fact, if today’s low was wave 4, the target for wave 5 would be between 1828 and 1845. It is still possible for the index to move lower, possibly to 1789, with the 1828 remaining intact.

My expectation is the SPX should put in a bottom between here and 1789, and then make one more move higher to between 1828 and 1845. That should complete a 5 wave sequence from the 1074.77 low. 

Thursday's Market 11/21/2013

The pullback of the previous three days was all but erased today, as the SPX gapped higher at the open, and barely looked back. Yesterday I said that inverted corrective wave had completed at the 1773.23 low, suggesting a move higher. Just as decline yesterday was foreshadowed by a nested inverted corrective wave scenario, the set up for today’s rally began in the last hour of trading yesterday. From that low, the index formed a small 5 wave sequence to 1780.95. After a small pullback, the SPX formed another small wave higher, followed by three small waves lower. This formed a 1-2-3-4-5(1)-A-1-A-B-C sequence. The sharp rise this morning completed wave D, and the small pullback that followed, wave E, completing the first inverted corrective wave, and wave 2. Three more waves to the upside, 1790.61-1789.34-1793.38, completed waves 3, 4, and 5, and in turn wave B of the initial inverted corrective wave that began yesterday. A swift three wave decline followed, completing waves C, D, and E, which completed that initial corrective wave, and wave 2 from yesterday’s 1773.23 low.  Three quick moves higher completed the sequence from the low at 1793.71, right at the 1794 resistance level.

After reaching that resistance level, the SPX underwent the largest pullback of the day, all of 3 points. This decline occurred in three waves, suggesting another inverted corrective wave was underway. After pulling back to 1790.60, the index began to rise again. The rally from 1790.60 eventually carried the index to 1797.16. This was a 5 wave sequence with an inverted corrective wave 2. Wave D of this corrective wave lifted the SPX to 1795.71, with wave E testing that 1794 support at 1794.10. After reaching 1797.16, the index pulled back again, this time to 1794.35. This would be within the range of completing the inverted corrective wave from 1793.71, and wave 2 of a sequence higher.

I am looking for this sequence from 1773.23 to complete somewhere above 1803. This would complete the third wave from 1746.20 low, and after a brief pull pack would then project wave 5 above 1828.

Wednesday's Market 11/20/2013

The SPX gapped higher at the open, hit 1791.83, and then turned lower.  After closing that opening gap, the index turned higher, moving to 1795.73, slightly higher than yesterday’s high. I thought this would confirm a continuation of the up move, but I turned out to be wrong. From that high, the SPX formed a 5 wave sequence lower to 1789.21. Things then turned choppy, but set up the downside breakout to come. After that initial sequence lower, the SPX set up a nested inverted corrective wave. An inverted corrective wave is a corrective wave in which the second and fourth waves, generally corrective waves, are more powerful than the usual first, third, and fifth normally impulsive waves. The result is generally a corrective wave that completes beyond the end of the previous impulse wave.

After dropping from 1795.73 to 1789.21, the index formed three waves higher, which were waves A, B, and C, of the first inverted corrective wave. This was followed by another wave 1 to the downside, and another A, B, C higher. Wave D of this second inverted corrective wave broke out of the narrow trading range, and then bounced to 1791.50 to complete the corrective wave. The SPX then saw waves 3, 4, and 5 which took the index sharply lower. This then completed wave D of the second inverted corrective wave, and again was followed by waves 3, 4, and 5, taking the index sharply lower once again, all the way down to 1777.23.

From 1795.73, a 5 wave sequence was completed at 1777.23. I had thought an inverted corrective wave from 1773.44 had completed yesterday, but my count for this wave seems to be mistaken. I would now say that today’s low is a better choice for the completion of this wave, with it forming 1760.64-1801.34-1784.72-1795.73-1777.23.

My longer term outlook remains unchanged. I am still looking for the index to move higher, with a minimum target of 1828.

Tuesday's Market 11/19/2013

In the wake of yesterday’s new all time high and late afternoon sell-off, the SPX opened essentially flat, moved marginally higher, and then dropped below yesterday’s low to 1785.92. At that point the “buy the dip” mentality prevailed, and the index moved higher. It rose modestly above the 1794 support/resistance to 1795.51before running out of momentum, and rolling over once again. The first selling wave took the SPX to 1788.64, and after a bounce back to 1794 the second selling wave took the index down to 1784.72. The SPX tried to rally again, moving up to 1791 before falling back into the close.

After hitting a new all time high at 1802.33, the SPX has given back a little under 18 points. As I stated last week, I was looking for a pullback of slightly more than 11 points, and over the weekend I said a pullback to the 1784 area was most likely. The SPX looks to have completed a 5 wave sequence from the high at 1784.72, and within the range to complete the inverted corrective wave from 1773.44 that I was looking for. The index can still move lower without jeopardizing the count, with a move above 1795.51 likely signally the end of the pullback.

As I pointed out this weekend, I am looking for this wave to carry above 1828 to complete a sequence from 1746.20, 1560.33, and possibly 1074.77. If this wave falls short of the 1828 level the first scenario I outlined over the weekend would become more probable.

Weekend Outlook 11/17/2013

Since the inception of this bull market in March 2009, the SPX first completed a 5 wave sequence at 1219.80. A second sequence completed at 1010.91, and was followed by a sequence higher at 1370.58. After a fourth sequence completed at 1074.77, the index has embarked on a comparatively lengthy sequence higher. Since there appears to be no danger of the current sequence completing a sequence from 666.79, this bull would seem to have further to run.

Of more immediate interest is the current status of the sequence from 1074.77. In my Weekend Outlook on 10/20/13, (http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2013/10/weekend-outlook-10202013.html), I outlined a scenario in which the SPX was forming a sequence that eventually would be composed of 17 individual waves, with the index currently in the 13^th wave. It is difficult to estimate a target for this sequence at the moment, but it is a bullish scenario which likely would carry the SPX much higher. The key to this scenario is that from here until the completion of the sequence, the previous low cannot be broken. Since I have the current wave beginning at 1646.47, the ensuing decline would have to remain above that level. The same would be true for any subsequent declines until the final wave has completed.

Some of you may recall that prior to this I had proposed a different scenario suggesting that if a 5 wave sequence completed from the 1560.33 low above 1776, it may complete the sequence from 1074.77. Lately I have given this scenario a lower probability, but after spending quite a bit of time reviewing all my charts this past week, this scenario is once again looking very interesting. This count has waves 1, 2, and 3 from 1074.77 completing at 1292.66-1158.66-1422.38. From there the SPX formed a 5 wave inverted corrective wave 4 at 1266.74-1474.51-1343.35-1687.18-1560.33, and projects wave 5 to complete above 1776. Since the SPX has now surpassed that level, it seems prudent to at least give this count some merit.

So the key to this count is the sequence from 1560.33. From that low, 1709.36 marked the termination point of wave 1. The following correction to 1627.47 is what differentiates the two aforementioned scenarios. Up until this point, all the waves from 1074.77 are the same for the two scenarios, the only difference being the degree of the wave. For the first scenario, the correction from 1709.36 to 1627.47 would have to be a single 5 wave sequence. This is what I had originally counted, but it technically looks like 3 sequences, 1639.43-1669.51-1627.47. If this is the case, the second scenario presented becomes much more probable.

Assuming there were three waves from 1709.36, the next two moves, to 1729.86 and 1646.27, then complete an inverted corrective wave 2. The move from 1646.27 to 1774.54 was extremely complex, and I have had several different working counts. The best one actually has this as a single sequence, and would then be wave 3. The pullback to 1746.20 then completed wave 4, meaning wave 5 is underway. Given the structure so far, this would project to above 1828.

If this count is correct, the SPX needs only to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1746.20 above 1828 to complete the entire sequence from 1074.77. Looking at this wave, I have wave 1 completing at 1773.44. The three waves down are then most likely waves A, B, and C of an inverted corrective wave 2. Wave D of this sequence appears to have completed Friday at 1798.19. If so, the SPX should now see a pullback, and then a final move to above 1828. Support would be at 1794, and then 1784.

In the next day or two, I would be looking for a pullback to 1794 or 1784. 1784 would fit better with the inverted corrective wave, so that seems more likely. If the SPX then forges ahead and moves above 1828, the sequence from 1074.77 may be complete. It should be an interesting week. 

Thursday's Market 11/14/2013

After a slightly lower opening, the SPX wasted little time before reaching a new all time high. After hitting 1784.80, the index underwent a slight correction, dropping to 1780.22. A quick move higher brought the SPX to 1790.80, and after another small correction, the index rose steadily throughout the afternoon, hitting 1791.53 just before the close.

By rising above 1791, one count that would have indicated the completion of the wave from 1074.77 was eliminated. It now appears that this market still has higher to go. At the moment I am still waiting for the SPX to complete the sequence from the 1646.47 low that may complete the larger sequence. From the 1646.47 low, the best count has wave 2 of that sequence completing at 1746.20. Wave 3 is now underway.

Given the recent run-up, a pullback at some point would not be surprising, and a move lower of slightly more than 11 points would fit nicely. But the market could continue higher before that happens.

With what appears to be several waves before this upside move concludes, it is difficult to give targets, but a move to around 1828 seems reasonable. These targets will hopefully become clearer as the wave structure progresses.

Wednesday's Market 11/13/2013

I was a bit premature in calling yesterday afternoon’s low of 1762.29 the completion of a 5 wave sequence from the 1773.44 high. Instead of the SPX moving higher at the open, as I expected, it moved lower.  After gapping lower, the index reached a low of 1760.44 before heading higher. It did not take long for the SPX to close that opening gap, and after a brief pullback it continued higher until reaching 1776.33. As I have been pointing out, this was a critical level as it marks the minimum point at which the sequence from 1074.77 could complete.  From there the index underwent another very minor pullback before heading higher into the close. It closed on the high of the day at 1781.87.

Following the opening dip, the SPX completed a sequence at the 1781.87 high. Wave 1 finished at 1765.80, wave 2 at 1762.66, and wave 3 at 1767.73. Wave 4 was an inverted corrective wave which ended at 1773.49, with 1781.87 then completing wave 5. I had been looking for a move to 1782 to complete a sequence from 1746.20, and possibly 1646.47, which would in turn complete a sequence from 1560.33, and 1074.77. I had expected been expecting to see 5 waves from 1746.20, but at the moment I see only three waves at 1773.44-1760.44-1781.87.

If my current count is correct, that would mean the SPX should have at least one more move to the upside. This wave would have to complete below 1787 in order to complete a sequence from 1646.47. A move down to 1767-1773, followed by a move higher would target a level below 1787. A move above 1787 would likely mean a further continuation of this move, as hard as it is to believe. At the moment it looks like 1829 would be a minimum target.

There is an alternate count from 1646.47 that would not require another wave, and has an upside limit of 1791. This count has the inverted corrective wave 2 completing at 1746.20, wave 3 at 1773.44, and wave 4 at 1760.64. That makes the current wave the fifth and final wave.  This would complete the entire sequence from 1074.77.

A lot of variables I know, but the market is at one of those points. The current wave could complete between today’s high and 1791. A move below 1760.64 would likely mean the sequence from 1074.77 has completed. If the SPX moves above 1791, 1829 would be my next upside target.

Tuesday's Market

The SPX spent much of the day working its way lower, trading within the recent 1775-1746 trading range for one more (last?) day. After opening lower to 1765.62, the index rebounded to 1772. Following that initial bounce, the SPX continued lower into mid-afternoon, dropping to 1762.32. The index spent the remainder of the day attempting a recovery that ultimately fell short of breakeven, but which may have formed a very near term bullish structure.

The move from Monday’s 1773.44 high to this afternoon’s 1762.32 low unfolded in a 5 wave sequence. This would appear to be a corrective wave that followed the rise from 1746.20 to 1773.44. Recall that my current count has 1746.20 as the termination point of wave 4 from 1646.47, making 1773.44 wave 1 of 5, and 1762.32 wave 2 of 5 from that low. From today’s 1762.32 low, a wave 1 to 1765.17, and an inverted corrective wave 2 ending at 1765.86 can be counted. This would imply that the SPX is headed higher in near term.

I am still looking at 1782 as a possible termination point for the wave from 1646.47. If the SPX reaches that level, it could mean the end of the sequence from 1074.77. A move above 1787 would likely mean a continuation of the move higher.

Monday's Market 11/11/2013

The SPX opened slightly lower this morning, dropping to 1767.85 before staging a small rally to 1773.44. After that point it seems the market closed early, as the rest of the day was spent in a very narrow range. It has now been nearly two weeks since the SPX hit an all time high of 1775.22, just below the critical 1776 level I have mentioned for some time. Since then the index has dropped to 1752.70, right at the 1753 support level, rallied back to 1774.54, and then dropped to the secondary support level of 1744. The market again has rallied, with the SPX now at 1771.80.

The 1776 level is critical from my standpoint, because it is the level at which a 5 wave sequence from 1074.77 could possibly complete. Picking up from my last count from the 1646.47 low it appears the market has now completed 4 waves of a sequence. Wave 1 completed at 1703.44, and was followed by an inverted corrective wave 2 which completed at 1740.50. There are a couple different ways to interpret the move since then, with one scenario having the all time of 1775.22 as wave 3, which was followed by a lengthy wave 4 which completed at 1746.20. It is also possible that wave 3 was the lengthy wave, and completed at 1774.54. The subsequent drop to 1746.20 was then wave 4. I prefer the second scenario at the moment, but it has little effect as far as projections go for wave 5.

At this point, I would give 1782 as the target for this wave. That would also be a point at which a sequence from 1074.77 could complete. If the SPX gets to that level, I will go into more detail about that. This is a difficult market to be completely certain about anything, so the there are several levels to watch for further guidance.

If the market pulls back from here, without moving above 1776, I would still prefer the scenario of the index staying above the previous low of 1646, and then making at least one more higher high. If the SPX gets to near 1782, and then starts to pullback, chances increase that the sequence from 1074.77 has completed. A move above 1787 and this market may continue to move higher. The market should resolve this soon.

Friday's Market 11/01/2013

The decline from Wednesday’s 1775.22 all time high has been extremely interesting, and which may lead to some longer term implications.

The decline started with a fairly straight forward sequence which went 1770.67-1773.30-1764.31-1770.48-1757.24. From that point, the SPX made a choppy advance to 1768.53. The sequence 1766.33-1755.72-1765.54-1763.20-1768.53 completed a complex semi-inverted corrective wave, and wave 2 from the 1775.22 high. This was followed by another decline to 1752.70 which completed today, and wave 3. This afternoon’s rebound to 1763.88 would seem to complete wave 4.

If this count proves to be correct, it would point to another move lower, which should complete at 1749-1750. BY my count, this would complete the fourth wave from 1646.47, and point to another move higher, with a target of 1782. This would be above the critical 1776 level I have been discussing for some time, and could possibly complete the entire sequence from the 1074.77 low.

Wednesday's Market 10/30/2013

As has almost become the norm, the SPX gapped higher to a fresh all time high, and then pulled back. After a 5 point drop the index tried to stage a rally, but breaking recent form the SPX then continued lower. The index drifted lower until the FOMC announcement, then bounced 6 points before heading for the lows of the day. The index moved down to 1757 before making it back up to 1766. The SPX then faded into the close.

This morning’s high of 1775.22 completed a 5 wave sequence from the 1740.50 low. This wave had been difficult to follow, but now seems to be 1758.46-1753.21-1764.99-1768.21-1775.22, with wave 4 being an inverted corrective wave. From the 1646.47 low, I count 3 waves. The first part of this wave counts best as a complete sequence from that low to 1758.16. The drop to 1740.50 was wave 2, and today’s high completed wave 3. If this afternoon’s low was wave 4, it would project wave 5 to complete between 1779 and 1798, with an optimal target of 1788. There are still several possibilities, so the next couple of days bear close watching.

At the moment it still seems most likely that the SPX will make one more high for this move, with a target of 1788, before a pullback. If this scenario does play out, there should be at least one more move higher before the sequence from 1077.74 concludes.

Near term support is at 1753, and then 1744.

Tuesday's Market 10/29/2013

The market continued its incessant climb today, hitting a fresh all time high once again. It seems that nothing can derail this freight train, or even slow it down. But the SPX is reaching some critical levels from my point of view, and this could get interesting very soon.

There is not much one can say about today’s market. The SPX gapped higher to a new all time high, pulled back a few points, and then moved steadily higher to close at another all time high of 1771.90. I have been expecting some sort of pullback, but so far none has been forthcoming. For some time now I have been pointing to 1776 as a minimum level for the completion of a sequence from the October 2011 low of 1074.77. Things seemed pretty clear when the SPX reached the 1560.33 low back in June, but things have been a bit muddled since. After the index reached 1710, and then fell to 1627, I described an ending scenario that would go something like 1745-1680-1776 to complete the sequence. The SPX fell short of that 1745 level, with the next top reaching only 1730. This complicated matters, and I began looking at a more complex end to this sequence. If this current move carries above 1776 this scenario may come back into play. If the SPX rises above 1796 this becomes a real possibility. A move above 1776 would also bring one other count into play that would suggest an end to the sequence from 1074.77.

For the moment it still seems likely that this market will eventually find a short term top, pullback, and then move to new highs. But a move above 1776, followed by a move below 1740, could signal a longer term top has been put in.

FOMC meeting days have been interesting, and this should be no exception.

Monday's Market 10/28/2013

The SPX hit another all time high today, something that has become commonplace these days. The market has once again entered a stage where it seems that it will never go down, a stage it has been in several times during this bull run. The market will, of course, go down, but it has become a dangerous game to try to pinpoint when. I have underestimated this latest rise in the market, with my 1745 target having been taken out several days ago, with very little pressure to the downside. I was early in calling for a possible downward move, as it has become apparent that 1745 was not the completion of this sequence from 1646.47.

This sequence is reminiscent of the rise from 1627 to 1730. Both contained choppy upside moves, with very few pullbacks of any consequence. Looking at the end of that move, from the 1704.95 high on September 16^th, the action is quite similar to the action from the recent 1759.33 high. Both highs were followed by a small pullback, followed by new highs which formed in a very narrow upward biased channel. The previous move was then followed by another small pullback, and then a sharp move to new highs that proved to be the precursor of a nearly 85 point pullback. This is noteworthy as both have occurred leading into an FOMC meeting.

Looking at this sequence from the 1646.47 low, the most predominant feature is the inverted corrective wave which formed between 1703.44 and 1740.50. Those have been the only significant pullbacks of this rally. The most likely scenario is that the move from 1646.47 to 1703.44 was wave 1 of this sequence. The inverted corrective wave would then be wave 2. From that low, it is possible that wave 3 ended at 1758.46, wave 4 was the small pullback to 1752.45, and the SPX is now in wave 5 of that sequence. The target for this scenario would be between current levels and 1773. It is also possible that the move from 1740.50 to current levels is wave 3, which would be followed by a pullback, and then one more move higher. This would be similar to the scenario I described above.

For now, a move below 1740.50 would most likely signal an end of this sequence. Until then it is difficult to fight the momentum. 

Wednesday's Market 10/23/2013

The SPX gapped down at the open this morning, dropping below 1742. After staging a small rally, the index continued lower, dropping back to 1742, rallying to 1746, and finally reaching a low of 1740.50. This completed a 5 wave sequence from yesterday afternoon’s 1758.16 high. As has been the pattern lately, the SPX reversed course by late morning, and started working its way higher. The index rallied to 1746.66, fell back to 1742.51, and then rallied again to 1748.39 by mid-afternoon. The SPX then fell back to 1744.72 before moving higher into the close. This may have formed waves 1-4 of a sequence to the upside.

This would be interesting because it would give a target for wave 5 of 1750-1751. After yesterday’s pullback to 1747.58 after the 1759.33 high, the SPX completed three waves to the upside at 1755.51-1751.91-1758.16. If a sequence from today’s low completes at 1750-1751, it would complete an inverted corrective wave from the 1747.58 low. This would indicate a continuation of the move lower to follow.

I am still looking for the SPX to move lower. There are several support levels between 1719 and 1661 that would fit the target range for this low. Short term, it looks like the SPX may open higher, to 1750-1751, to complete an inverted corrective wave from 1747.58. This would set the stage for another move lower, with support at 1719.

Tuesday's Market 10/22/2013

Well that was a big miss. I had been looking at yesterday’s 1747.79 high as the completion of a 5 wave sequence from the 1646.47 low. That certainly was not the case. While today’s move above that high would normally point to the continuation of the current trend, I will remain cautiously neutral at the moment, as there is a chance that a sequence from 1646.47 concluded today.

The suspense did not last long this morning, as the SPX gapped higher at the open and surpassed yesterday’s high within the first minute of trading. From there the index rose above 1751 before a very small pullback. After that the SPX shot up to 1759.33. It appeared this spike higher would be short lived, as the index quickly reversed course and dropped back near the opening levels to 1747.58. The SPX then chopped higher through the afternoon, making it above 1758 before falling back to 1754 near the close.

Looking at the waves from yesterday’s 1747.79 high, the SPX completed 3 waves to the downside at 1740.67 as I mentioned yesterday. This was followed by a single sequence to today’s high of 1759.33. The index then completed a sequence lower with the ensuing drop to 1747.58. After that low was put in, it appears the index completed 3 waves to the upside.

Re-evaluating my count from 1695.93, I still see wave 1 completing at 1704.01. This was followed by an inverted corrective wave 2 that completed at 1714.12, with wave 3 then completing at 1729.64. I had been counting wave 4 at 1725.93, with wave 5 completing at 1747.79. If that count is correct, the 3 waves down yesterday from that high, and the drop today from 1759.33 would complete an inverted corrective wave, meaning another move to the upside would be in order.

It is also possible that from wave 3 mentioned above, an inverted corrective wave 4 followed. This would have ended at yesterday’s low of 1740.67. Today’s high of 1759.33 would then be wave 5. This would be unusual since normally there is only one complex corrective wave in a sequence, but with wave 2 being a complex wave also, this would make two. But this has been a strange market, so it cannot be ruled out.

A move above today’s high would mean the first scenario is correct, a drop below today’s low of 1748 the second. My next resistance level would be 1776. This is a level at which the sequence from 1074.77 could possibly complete. At the moment I see this as a low probability, but it is worth noting.

Support is at 1723, and then 1703.