Friday, August 17, 2012

Thursday's Market 08/16/12


A higher opening this morning lifted the market to 1408.65. From there, the market moved lower, dropping to 1404, before starting a prolonged rally that lasted into late afternoon. Once it broke back above 1408, the market continued on to 1410. After a minor pause, the rally resumed, moving the market to 1413, which was followed by another small pause. By late afternoon, the market stood at 1417.44. The market dropped back to 1414 near the close, before moving higher into the close.

Yesterday I said I was looking for the market to move initially to 1412, undergo a very slight pullback, and then continue on to 1418-1420. This was based on a 5 wave sequence from 1400.6 completing yesterday afternoon. That sequence actually ended this morning at the open, with wave 2 forming an inverted corrective wave, which carried the market to 1413.59, before the slight pullback to 1412.41. This altered the projection I gave yesterday slightly, but still very close. The 5 wave sequence from1400 then ended at today’s high of 1417.44. A 5 wave sequence to the downside from there has completed.

This now completes a 5 wave sequence from 1395.62, which I see as wave 1 of wave 5 from 1267. Having finally broken out of the narrow trading range it had been in, it now seems likely that wave 5 from 1267 will carry to 1497.
The next short term upside targets are 1421-1423, and 1427-1435. I have said before that the next move could be fairly swift, meaning the pullbacks could be minor. With that in mind, a 5 wave sequence completed today from 1417.44 to 1414.36, which also reached a support level based on the 1395-1417 sub-waves. The market could very well move higher from here.
Support for the corrective wave from 1417 should be 1414, 1411, 1407, 1402, and 1399.

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