Tuesday Update 02/20/2024

 The markets started the week on a bearish note after the long weekend. A gap down opened the week, as SPY fell to 497.60. The markets continued to work their way lower through the early morning, with SPY eventually falling to 495.75 just after 10:30. SPY tried to rally from there, but only managed to make it 497.30 just after 11:00. Another round of selling took the markets lower during the rest of the morning, and into early afternoon. Shortly after 12:30, SPY fell to it's low of the day at 494.45. From there the markets again tried to stage a rally, and SPY moved higher through most of the afternoon. Soon after 3:00, SPY was sitting at 496.88, but then a sharp drop found it testing the 495 level once again. SPY did rally in the final minutes, fighting back to 496.83 before closing at 496.76.

In our weekend update we detailed our current count, with a focus on the current wave from the January 5,2024 low of 466.43. It is our contention that this is Wave 5 from the October 2022 low of 348.11. We project this wave to complete at a minimum of 517, with a working target of 530. Shorter term we are still looking for a low of 490 - 491. We don't rule out a drop somewhat lower, near 480, but 477 is the lower limit for the current count. We would then expect a move taking SPY above 517.

Weekend Update 02/18/2024

 The week started on a positive note, as SPY opened higher on Monday, getting as high as 503.50 during the morning. It gave up those gains during the afternoon, dropping near the 500 level before closing slightly below Friday's close. A disappointing CPI report sent the market lower on Tuesday, breaking through the 500 level, and back down to the 490 level. The remainder of the week was spent recovering from that drop, with SPY getting back above 500 on Thursday and Friday, but closing the week just below that level at 499.51.

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Friday Update 02/16/2024

 The market opened flat this morning, but quickly made it's way lower in early morning trading. Just after 10:00 SPY fell to 498.75, and once again testing the 500 level. It did find support at that level, and by noon it had rallied to 502.46. SPY drifted lower over the next hour and a half, falling back to test the 500 level once again at 500.74. Another rally off that support took SPY to a new high for the day at 502.87, just after 2:00. That rally quickly evaporated, and Spy soon found itself bouncing around that 500 level. This time that level failed to hold, with SPY dropping to 498.98 before closing just above that at 499.51.

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