Monday's Update 02/26/2024

 The market opened marginally higher today, coming off the strong gains of late last week. SPY drifted up to 508.66 in early trading before reversing course and moving lower. That move lasted into late morning, and SPY was down to 507.01 just before 11:30, A small rally attempt lasted until after noon, and SPY was back to 507.88. Another move lower followed, with SPY testing the 506 level, dropping to 506.02 before trying to move higher once again, The rally failed at 507.29, and SPY moved back towards the low of the day. SPY did make a new low for the day just before close, dropping to 505.86, before closing at 505.99.

Our current count remains the same. The late rally last week appears to be the start of Wave 5 of Wave 5 from the October 2022 low of 348.11. It looks as though this Wave 5 is subdividing into a 5 wave sequence with Friday's high marking the completion of Wave 1. Our minimum target for the completion of this final wave is 517, with the smaller magnitude sequence pointing to a high above 337. 

Friday Update 02/23/2024

 The rally following NVDA's earnings report continued into this morning, as we saw another opening gap higher on SPY, propelling it briefly above 510. It hit a high of 510.12 before turning lower, trading between 509 and 510 before breaking lower to the 507 level. Two rally attempts failed at that same 509 level that had earlier offered support. The third attempt only made it to 508.76 before turning lower once again to close at 507.85.

We continue to follow this Wave 5 from the January 5,2024 Wave 4 low of 466.43. We had a minimum target of 517 for this final wave, which we are approaching. Our current structure for this wave gives a slightly higher target, with a minimum of 537.

We will be closely monitoring this final wave for any deviations from our current count.

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Thursday Update 02/22/2024

 The late afternoon rally on Wednesday afternoon certainly foreshadowed what was to occur this morning. All eyes had been on the NVDA earning report, which was due out after the close. NVDA has been on an incredible tear since early January, rising more than 50%. Expectations were high, and the odds of a disappointing report seemed just as high. But NVDA did not disappoint, and the run continued today.

No one who read our report on Wednesday should have been surprised, as we saw NVDA currently in a 5th wave, with a target above 1380. On the heals of that earnings beat, analysts have been falling over each other trying to raise price estimates. One has a high of 1200. Nice to see they are following my lead.