The market opened to the upside once again this morning, rising to 1329, and completing the initial move I was looking for. The pullback then came as expected, taking the market to 1318. That appears to be the end of the pullback. I now look for one more push higher, with a target of 1345, to complete the 5 wave sequence from 1267.
I value your opinion. I was hair trigger to close my position today,hesitated, and got hit in the face for it at the close. I feel the selling was a one off due to the S&P/Moody's downgrade any moment announcement. Barring that, and that we closed positive on the DOW, and held SPX 1313, do you still see a move to the 1340 area off this consolidation at the close? I'm the first to admit, I did not "sell too soon", which is key to profit protection in my book.
ReplyDeleteThe sell off now as I see it, was due to the Fed enacting Basel III,
ReplyDeletehigher capital standards for US Banks, in conjunction with similar moves by world banks. It rocked the XLF, and in turn the SPX and DOW.
Thank Vinnie. Let me preface this by saying nothing on this blog is intended as investment advice. It is simply my personal interpretaion of my model. I am not qualified to give such advice, and do not intend for this to be taken as such. While I still see a possibility of 1329 being a wave 5 high from 1267, for the moment I am sticking with my current count. 1345 still looks like the most likely stopping point for this wave. It would fit my model the best. And even if 1329 is a wave 5 high, I still see the market moving above that level. The only question is how far down we go before we turn up again.
DeleteThanks,
Steve
Always understood, strictly opinion on technical levels on indicies.
ReplyDeleteYou are one of only three sane people who don't drink "wave kool-aid".
Sound analysis, it is quite in line with the other two. Discussions like these lend to sane, not insane, analysis among us. I value your opinion as always, have a great weekend, and btw look for some news out of Europe over the weekend. Bernanke and China are done, now it's Europe's turn to come to the microphone.
Thanks Vinnie,
DeleteI also value our discussions. The more discussion, the sharper the analysis becomes. I will keep an eye on Europe. Thanks again for your contributions.
Steve