Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Tuesday's Market 05/20/2014

After reaching 1886.00 yesterday, the SPX started the day off to the downside. After just over 30 minutes of trading the index had fallen to 1877.47. From there the SPX started to rebound, bouncing back to 1882.91. After that it was downhill all the way, as the index dropped steadily throughout the afternoon, reaching a low of 1868.14 before moving higher. This took the SPX to 1875.89, but started giving back some of those gains into the close.

Looking at the wave structure from yesterday’s 1886.00 high, I count the drop to 1877.47 as a Wave A down. The move back up to 1882.91 was 5 waves, and can be counted as Wave B. The decline throughout the afternoon also looks like 5 waves which completed Wave C at 1869.05. I can also count 5 waves up to 1875.89 for the fourth wave, or Wave D. The move down from that high does not look like a completed sequence, but rather 1 wave down followed by an inverted corrective wave completing just before the close. This implies a further move to the downside.

The 4 completed waves, 1877.47-1882.91-1869.05-1875.89, give a fifth wave target near 1852, the same level I mentioned yesterday as a possible end point for this wave. If the SPX completes this wave at this level it would complete an inverted corrective wave from the April 22nd 1884.89 high.

If my short term count is wrong, and the SPX moves higher from here resistance is still at 1893-1894, and then 1924-1925.

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