Wednesday's Market 03/27/2013

The more things change, the more they remain the same. After starting the trading session to the downside as anticipated, the market quickly turned around. By the end of the session, the market had pushed slightly into positive territory, and finished within a point of yesterday’s close.

 

The market opened to the downside, falling below 1552 to 1551.90, which proved to be the low of the day. The next several hours saw the market gain back nearly ten points, rising to 1561.19. After a pullback to just below 1558, the market rallied the rest of the day; edging out yesterday’s high before pulling back into the close.

The market completed a 5 Wave sequence from the low of the day to the high, indicating the market may move lower at the outset tomorrow morning. However, the market is just as likely to rise off that low as it did today.

While my bias is still for this market to move lower, I am still looking at a break above 1565.50 as an indication that the market will move higher. A drop below 1545.90 will confirm a breakout to the downside.

Thank you for your interest and support.

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday's Market 03/26/2013

Although the market enjoyed a strong move higher today, nothing in that move changed my current view of the wave count I have been talking about since this weekend. That count has Wave 1 from 666.79 terminating at 1370.58. Wave 2 turned out to be a rather lengthy inverted corrective wave that eventually ended last Tuesday at 1538.57. From there I have Waves 3, 4, and 5 terminating at 1561.56, 1543.55, and 1564.91 respectively.

 

The market jumped this morning above 1558 in the opening minutes of trading. The action became a bit choppier from that point, with the SPX hitting 1561.59 before pulling back. That pullback took the market to 1556.45. The market then traded within that range over the next several hours before hitting a new high for the day. The SPX eventually made it to 1563.95, and closed just off that high.

This entire move was the completion of a single 5 Wave sequence from yesterday’s 1546.22 low. Wave 1 ended yesterday at 1555.59, with Wave 2 an inverted corrective wave that completed today at 1556.45. Wave 2 of this wave was also an inverted corrective wave, of which this morning’s spike higher was the main feature. Waves 3, 4, and 5 then completed, with Wave 5 carrying the market to 1560.77. This then became Wave 1 of a higher degree wave. Wave 2 was again an inverted corrective wave, and Wave 5 completed at 1562.95.

With a 5 Wave sequence from 1546.22 now completed, and the market still below yesterday’s high, now would be the time for the market to move lower. I am still looking for a move below 1545.90 to confirm 1564.91 as the completion of Wave 5 from 666.79.

There are several alternatives for the market. If the market manages to make a slightly higher high, it would complete a 5 Wave sequence from 1538.83 Wave 2 low. This would imply that only Wave 3 has completed. A pullback for Wave 4 would be expected, and then at least one more move higher for Wave 5.

If the market breaks through the 1565.5, it would mean that Wave 3 still has further to go. This would then be followed by Waves 4, and 5.  

Thank you. Your interest, support, and comments are much appreciated.

 

 

 

 

 

Monday's Market 03/25/2013

With today’s move to a new uptrend high at 1564.91, my count from this weekend seems to be confirmed. That count had 1563.62 completing a 5 Wave sequence from 1074.77. This in turn completed Wave 2 of an inverted corrective Wave 2 from the May 2011 high of 1370.58. Wave 3 then completed at 1555.74, Wave 4 at 1562.86, and Wave 5 at 1538.57. This concluded Wave 2 from 666.79.

From that point, the market completed a 5 wave up to 1561.56, a 5 wave sequence down to 1545.90, and a 5 wave sequence today at 1564.91. That very well could complete Wave 5 from 666.79. This would be confirmed with a move below 1545.90. Since we stayed above that level today, it is still possible for the market to move higher, and also possible that we are still in Wave 3 from 666.79.

 

After a flat start this morning, the market powered higher, moving to 1564.91. This completed a 5 wave sequence from the 1545.90 low. After hitting the new uptrend high, the market sold off rather quickly, dropping below the previous close, and hitting 1550.68 before trying to move higher. After a small rebound, the market fell again, this time to 1546.22. At that point the market did rally, moving past 1555, and turning positive for the day once again. After falling back to 1548, the market rallied into the close.

 

If the market moves higher from here, 1565, just marginally higher than today’s high, would be my target. If the SPX should hit that level, the implication would be that we are still in Wave 3 from 667.