Tuesday's Market 09/04/12

I apologize for the lack of posts recently. I have been attending to a family emergency, and have not had the time to update.

I will start with today’s market, and try to get up to date. The market started to the downside this morning, opening lower, and then continuing lower to 1399.06. This completed a 5 wave sequence from Friday’s 1413 high. After a brief bounce the market continued down to 1398, and then 1396.56. This appears to have completed another 5 wave sequence from the 1413 high. At that point the market started to rally, slowly at first, and then gaining steam towards the close. After making it into positive territory for the day at 1409, the market slipped slightly into the close, dropping back to 1405.

 

Just to remind everyone of my current count, I see the 1426 high as wave 4 of an inverted corrective wave 4 from the 1266 low. For this scenario to play out, wave 5 of that inverted corrective wave should terminate above 1395, with wave 5 from 1266 to follow. From the 1426 high, the market has now made three moves below 1400, but has remained above 1395 while making slightly lower lows each time. This now appears to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1426, with the market now poised to move higher for wave 5. It is possible for this wave to terminate below 1426, with the upper limit being 1466.

 

There is also a possible count from 667 that would allow for this rally to continue, which at this point I think it will. I will try to give a more detailed analysis of that possibility over the next couple of days.

At this point, if the market falls below 1395, I would expect a further correction, but I believe the market will stay above 1266.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday's Market 08/25/12

The market opened lower today, spiking below 1399, before recovering slightly to 1400. After that the market drifted slightly lower, bottoming at 1398.04. The market then rallied off that low, initially to 1401, and eventually carrying the market back near 1410 by late morning. After a small pullback to 1407, the rally continued. A move above 1412 was followed by a pullback to 1409, and then a final push to 1413. At that point the market fell rather quickly to 1410, before moving higher into the close.

 

Yesterday I mentioned the possibility of the market moving slightly lower this morning, but contended that it should hold above 1395. From there I expected the market to rally. The market completed a 5 wave sequence this morning from the 1426 high. Wave 1 of this sequence completed yesterday, with the small rebound into Thursday’s close serving as wave 2. The spike lower this morning was wave 3, the slight rebound wave 4, and the final drift lower to 1398 completed wave 5, holding above the 1395 level I had mentioned.

The rally off that low began with a 5 wave sequence completing at 1410. This wave featured a series of expanding wavelengths, indicating a further move higher. After a small pullback this rally continued, forming another 5 wave sequence that completed at 1413. This last series of waves were decreasing in length, indicating either the end of the move, or at the very least, a loss of momentum that will result in the end of the move coming soon.

 

Today’s low most likely completed wave 4 from 1267, now putting us in wave 5. With this wave in the target zone for wave 5, and the aforementioned decreasing wavelengths, makes it very likely that the move from 1267has completed. A move below 1395 should confirm this, with a further correction most probable. I have been operating under the assumption that this is wave 3 from the 667 low, but the fact that the current move rose above the previous 1422 high, and yet the 5 wave sequence completed below that high, buts that assumption in doubt. One possible scenario is that the move down to 1267, and then back up to 1426, was waves 1, and 2, of a complex correction from the previous 1422 high. I will cover this possibility, and the others, over the weekend.

 

 

 

Thursday's Market 08/23/12

The market opened lower today, falling quickly to 1407. After a slight rebound from that level, the market headed even lower, and reached 1404 before trying to rally. That rally only carried back to 1409, and then the selling resumed. This move took the market to 1400.50, and was followed by another rebound to 1405. One final move lower into the close, took the market back down to 1401.57.

 

Today’s initial move lower to 1403.90, completed a 5 wave sequence from Wednesday afternoon’s 1416 high. After the rebound to 1409, the market completed another 5 wave sequence to 1401.57.

 

Today’s waves also seem to complete a 5 wave sequence from the 1426.68 high, while staying above the 1395 minimum target, which means this is most likely still wave 4 from 1267. The market could still move slightly lower, completing another 5 wave sequence while staying above 1395, but I think the market is now poised for wave 5 up over the next several days. This could carry above the 1426.68 uptrend high.

 

 If the SPX breaks below 1395, we could be headed significantly lower. Support is at 1387-1397, 1376, and 1367. Resistance is at 1426.