Tuesday's Market 09/04/12

I apologize for the lack of posts recently. I have been attending to a family emergency, and have not had the time to update.

I will start with today’s market, and try to get up to date. The market started to the downside this morning, opening lower, and then continuing lower to 1399.06. This completed a 5 wave sequence from Friday’s 1413 high. After a brief bounce the market continued down to 1398, and then 1396.56. This appears to have completed another 5 wave sequence from the 1413 high. At that point the market started to rally, slowly at first, and then gaining steam towards the close. After making it into positive territory for the day at 1409, the market slipped slightly into the close, dropping back to 1405.

 

Just to remind everyone of my current count, I see the 1426 high as wave 4 of an inverted corrective wave 4 from the 1266 low. For this scenario to play out, wave 5 of that inverted corrective wave should terminate above 1395, with wave 5 from 1266 to follow. From the 1426 high, the market has now made three moves below 1400, but has remained above 1395 while making slightly lower lows each time. This now appears to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1426, with the market now poised to move higher for wave 5. It is possible for this wave to terminate below 1426, with the upper limit being 1466.

 

There is also a possible count from 667 that would allow for this rally to continue, which at this point I think it will. I will try to give a more detailed analysis of that possibility over the next couple of days.

At this point, if the market falls below 1395, I would expect a further correction, but I believe the market will stay above 1266.