Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Wednesday's Market 09/02/2015

It would seem that my logic yesterday was correct, however the analysis was not. I had called yesterday’s 1903.07 low Wave d of an inverted corrective wave that began Monday at 1965.98. I had anticipated a rally, and then one more wave down to complete Wave (e) yellow, and thus Wave [b] green. After today’s action it seems pretty clear that I was incorrect, and Wave d actually occurred yesterday, and the move to 1903.07 was the final wave lower.



By this count, the initial move higher this morning to 1938.37 can be seen as Wave [c] green, and the pullback to 1919.64 Wave [d]. Wave [e] of this sequence would need to complete below 1993 to complete Wave (D) dark blue of the long running corrective wave from the September 2014 2019.26 high. This would suggest that the final leg to below 1748 would begin once this wave completes.

Given the sequence so far, 1972.56-2093.55-1903.07-1938.37-1919.64, this current wave should complete between 1961 and 1989.

In my mind the SPX is now at a decision point, and it is a good time to discuss the main alternate count that paints a more bullish scenario. The corrective scenario I have been outlining has the September 2014 2019.26 high completing a 5 wave sequence from the October 2011 low of 1074.77. The alternate has the same count, but counts 2019.26 as Wave 1 of a higher degree wave. Waves 2, 3, 4, and 5 then completed as 1820.66-2079.46-1972.56-2093.55. This gives a complete sequence from 1074.77 as 1074.77-2019.26-1820.66-2079.46-1972.56-2093.55. I have already discussed above how yesterday 1903.07 low has completed a 5 wave sequence from the 2093.55 high. 1903.07 also would satisfy the criteria for the inverted corrective wave from 1219.80.



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