It would seem that my logic
yesterday was correct, however the analysis was not. I had called yesterday’s
1903.07 low Wave d of an inverted corrective wave that began Monday at 1965.98.
I had anticipated a rally, and then one more wave down to complete Wave (e)
yellow, and thus Wave [b] green. After today’s action it seems pretty clear
that I was incorrect, and Wave d actually occurred yesterday, and the move to
1903.07 was the final wave lower.
By this count, the initial move
higher this morning to 1938.37 can be seen as Wave [c] green, and the pullback
to 1919.64 Wave [d]. Wave [e] of this sequence would need to complete below
1993 to complete Wave (D) dark blue of the long running corrective wave from
the September 2014 2019.26 high. This would suggest that the final leg to below
1748 would begin once this wave completes.
Given the sequence so far,
1972.56-2093.55-1903.07-1938.37-1919.64, this current wave should complete
between 1961 and 1989.
In my mind the SPX is now at a
decision point, and it is a good time to discuss the main alternate count that
paints a more bullish scenario. The corrective scenario I have been outlining
has the September 2014 2019.26 high completing a 5 wave sequence from the
October 2011 low of 1074.77. The alternate has the same count, but counts
2019.26 as Wave 1 of a higher degree wave. Waves 2, 3, 4, and 5 then completed
as 1820.66-2079.46-1972.56-2093.55. This gives a complete sequence from 1074.77
as 1074.77-2019.26-1820.66-2079.46-1972.56-2093.55. I have already discussed
above how yesterday 1903.07 low has completed a 5 wave sequence from the
2093.55 high. 1903.07 also would satisfy the criteria for the inverted
corrective wave from 1219.80.
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