The SPX opened lower today, falling sharply to
1953.42, where it paused briefly, only to resume the decline shortly thereafter.
This time the index fell to 1937.46. Again it tried to recover, but it was a
weak attempt, making it back only to 1944.19. From there the SPX continued to
fall into the close, hitting a low of 1931.09.
The SPX opened right at the 1949-1955 level where
it found momentary support. The expected rally from that point did not
materialize, and the index broke through that support level quite handily. The
next level of support came right at the 1937 level. This was the minimum level
the SPX could decline to given my current count. Again that level did not hold,
as the index moved lower to 1931.
Given the facts that the SPX had moved into the
range to complete a 5 wave sequence from both 1560.33 and 1074.77, and that it
has moved below what I considered major support levels, it appears likely that
the index has put in a major top. I have not been able to review my charts as
completely as I would have liked today, so this is based more on the facts
above than a revised count. I still do not see a clear sequence from 1560.33,
but at the very least my count from that point is suspect.
To be clear, if this is a top from 1074.77 there
should be at least one, and most likely two, moves to the upside before this
bull market concludes. I will try to give a more complete analysis in the
upcoming days.
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