Friday, August 1, 2014

Thursday's Market 07/31/2014

The SPX opened lower today, falling sharply to 1953.42, where it paused briefly, only to resume the decline shortly thereafter. This time the index fell to 1937.46. Again it tried to recover, but it was a weak attempt, making it back only to 1944.19. From there the SPX continued to fall into the close, hitting a low of 1931.09.


The SPX opened right at the 1949-1955 level where it found momentary support. The expected rally from that point did not materialize, and the index broke through that support level quite handily. The next level of support came right at the 1937 level. This was the minimum level the SPX could decline to given my current count. Again that level did not hold, as the index moved lower to 1931.

Given the facts that the SPX had moved into the range to complete a 5 wave sequence from both 1560.33 and 1074.77, and that it has moved below what I considered major support levels, it appears likely that the index has put in a major top. I have not been able to review my charts as completely as I would have liked today, so this is based more on the facts above than a revised count. I still do not see a clear sequence from 1560.33, but at the very least my count from that point is suspect.

To be clear, if this is a top from 1074.77 there should be at least one, and most likely two, moves to the upside before this bull market concludes. I will try to give a more complete analysis in the upcoming days.


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