Today was a decidedly down day for the SPX. From
yesterday’s 1983.94 opening high, the SOX completed a 5 wave sequence down to
1965.95. Although this fell exactly within the range I gave yesterday, I had
expected 5 waves from 1982.45. This nullified my scenario from yesterday, and
with the subsequent breach of the 1964-1966 support area, forced a
re-evaluation of my count from the 1952.86 low.
I still have a sequence completing at 1969.84 from
that low. Today’s 5 wave sequence from 1983.94 to 1965.95 completed an inverted
corrective wave from 1969.84. This formed as
1959.63-1982.52-1965.34-1983.94-1565.95. With the bounce to 1975.99 that
followed, the market action from 1952.86 can be counted as the first 3 waves of
an inverted corrective wave, 1969.84-1965.95-1975.99. This would suggest the
SPX is still in a corrective wave from 1985.59. A break below 1952.86 would
confirm this. I would still be looking for this wave to complete above 1937.
Until the SPX moves below 1952.86, I will still
keep my count of 1952.86 as the end of a corrective wave, and 1969.84 as Wave 1
of a continuing advance. Under this
scenario the 5 waves from 1969.84 can be seen as Wave A of a semi-inverted
corrective wave1975.99 as Wave B, With Waves C, D, and E completing at today’s
low of 1955.59. At the moment this scenario seems like the lower probability,
but this market has liked surprises.
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