It was a benign opening for the SPX given
yesterday’s late afternoon fireworks. The index opened slightly to the
downside, falling to 1858.46. After trading sideways for several minutes, the
SPX broke to the downside once more, this time falling to 1854.63. The mood was
decidedly bullish from that point, with the index quickly rebounding to 1868.
After dipping to 1862, the SPX rose steadily, reaching 1873, and then traded in
a narrow range to 1873.49 before falling back to 1868.33 near the close.
Picking up from yesterday’s count, it looks like
the opening move to the downside completed a5 wave sequence from 1864.07, and
Wave B of 2 from 1874.14. The rally off that low to 1867.85 completed Wave C,
which was followed by a more complex Wave D to 1870.87. The final push higher
to 1873.49 completed Wave E and Wave 2 from 1874.14.
The rally from 1854.63 carried slightly further
than I had expected, but looks to have completed in an area that keeps my
current count intact. This has the SPX in a 1-A-B-C-1-A-B-C-1-2 pattern from
1882.35, the point I consider the termination point of the move from 1837.92.
Essentially this a nested wave structure with the bias being to the downside.
This count hinges on the SPX remaining below 1874.40, a level which is precariously
close at the moment, and which the index has flirted with for three days now. The
above scenario still seems to be the best fit for the waves, but again, this
count would be invalid if the SPX moves above1874.40.
No comments:
Post a Comment