5 Wave Model 03/15/2020

It has been way too long since I have posted. To those who have followed in the past, I apologize. But, considering the state of the market at the moment, I have contemplated starting to post again. Since it has been so long, I will spend a few minutes catching up. Those who have followed in the past know that I have been looking for 5 waves to be completed from the 3/6/2009 low of 666.79. I saw 1219.80, which was reached on 4/30/2010 as the first wave. The following correction to 1010.91 I considered Wave A of a 5 wave corrective wave. The subsequent high on 5/5/20111 of 1370.58 was Wave B of this corrective wave, and the low of 1074.77 Wave C. The market then underwent a lengthy rally that carried the SPX to 2134.71 on 5/22/2015. The market action from 9/22/2014, with the SPX at 2019.26, until 216/2016, when the SPX fell to 1820.66, was a bit muddled. At the time the SPX rose to 2134.71, I was looking for a low below 1810 to complete Wave C of the corrective wave from the 1219.80 high. There a couple of possible counts for this, but at the moment it is moot, since the count remains the same regardless of the exact points. So I will go with 2019.26 completing a 5 wave sequence from the 1074.77 low, and then an extension of that wave to 2116.48 on 11/6/15. Taking that as Wave D of the 5 wave correction from 1219.80, the following low of 1810.10 meets my requirements for the completion of 5 wave from 1219.80.

So we have this entire wave starting at 666.79, Wave I completing at 1219.80, and a 5 wave corrective sequence completing at 1810.10, for Wave II. Considering that, my model would be looking for Waves III. IV, and V to follow. I counted a 5 wave sequence from that 1810.10 low, to 2872.87, thus possibly completing Wave III. I saw a complex corrective wave from there to 2346.58 low reached on 12/31.2018. This completed Wave IV. The SPX then rallied to 2393.52 on 2/25/2020.

So if you take the 5 waves 666.79, 1219.80, 1810.10, 2872.87, 2346.58, 3393.52, who find a correlation of .9925, which meets my model's requirements for the completion of a 5 wave sequence. If so, the target for this corrective wave would be around 2030.

I will continue to post, depending on interest.

Tuesday's Market 10/06/2015

I’ll apologize in advance for not having a lot of time to get into detail, but considering the moves in the SPX the past few days I wanted to at least update my count. I should have more time in the next couple of days for a more thorough analysis.

From Friday’s low I count 5 waves up to 1935.82. After a short pullback, the SPX appears to have completed another sequence up. It would seem that another complex wave is forming, Which should bring the SPX, at least temporarily, back into the 1935-1921 range I have talked about for the last week or so. There should then be some choppiness in that areas, with a subsequent break below 1921 most probably signaling a strong move to the downside. My downside target remains below 1748.

 

Friday's Market 10/02/2015

At the open it appeared that my first scenario from yesterday was playing out as the SPX tumbled to 1894.17. Once hitting that low the index traded in choppy fashion for an hour as it formed the beginnings of another semi-inverted wave. The SPX then rallied strongly throughout the day, reaching a high of 1951.21.

After the 1927.21 high yesterday, the SPX dropped 26 points before rallying to 1924.52. From there to this morning’s 1894.17 opening low was slightly more than 30 points, but similar to the previous drop. As the index rallied today it became clear that my third scenario from yesterday was more likely. Namely that the SPX would form an inverted wave carrying it above the 1921-1935 level, and then back within that range. Today’s low then looks to be the third wave, with the fourth possibly completing today at 1951.21. Given the 26 point drop of the first wave, and the 30 point drop of the third wave, the fifth wave should be slightly shorter than the first, or slightly less than 26 points. Such a drop would bring the SPX back within the 1921-1935 level. This would complete the inverted wave, and thus the fourth wave from 1935.32. A very small rally would then complete the fifth wave and Wave (D).