Monday's Market 09/21/2015

On the Weekly Chart you will see my ongoing count from the March 2009 666.79 low. The first wave of this 5 wave sequence ended at 1219.80. Since then the SPX has been undergoing an inverted corrective second wave. Thus far four waves of this sequence have completed, with the fifth underway. The first four waves occurred at 1010.91-1370.58-1074.77-2019.26. The fifth wave of this sequence should complete below 1748 sometime after the first week of October.

The Daily Chart shows my count from 2019.26, the fourth wave of the sequence outlined above. This has been a quite complex wave, currently looking to form what I term a semi-inverted wave. Wave (A) of this sequence completed at 1820.66. The second wave rose above the previous high to 2079.46. Wave (C) is in progress, and should complete above 1820, with Wave (D) completing below 2019.26. Wave (E) should then carry the SPX below 1748. Wave (C) has proven challenging at times, and that may still be the case. Wave A of this wave completed at 1972.56 and Wave B at the recent 2020.86 high.

 

From that 2020.86 high, the SPX completed a 5 wave sequence down to 1953.45, and then a sequence higher to 1979.64. These could be Waves C, and D of (C). If this is the case Wave E should complete between 1935 and 1944. If 1935 is broken to the downside, it would likely mean that Wave C has not completed, and the index could move lower. If that level holds the SPX should rally, perhaps back to near 1990 before starting the final leg down to below 1748.

Thursday's Market 09/17/2015

After a slightly lower opening the SPX drifted marginally higher throughout the morning and early afternoon reaching 2003.52 just before the FED announcement. After that announcement, the index spiked higher to 2008.33, fell to 1987.99, and then recovered to the high of the day at 2020.86. After that the SPX gave up its gains falling quickly to 1986.76. After rebounding to 2000.50 the index fell further to 1986.73.

Continuing my count from 1939.19 on the 5 Minute Chart, the SPX had completed Wave 2 yesterday at 1986.04. Wave 3 looks to have completed at 2008.33, Wave 4 at 2002.19 and Wave 5 at 2020.86. This would complete the sequence above the 2002 level I had mentioned, and below the 2028 level that would have put my current scenario in jeopardy.

On the 15 Minute Chart it would seem likely that Wave [d]did complete at 1939.19 instead of 1903.07 and Wave [e] today at 2020.86. I have at the moment labeled this with Wave (D) although this more likely to be Wave B looking at the Daily Chart. I will go into more detail on this, and the implications over the weekend, but this does not affect my 1748 downside target, only the form that the SPX might take getting there.

Wednesday's Market 09/16/2015

The pullback I said might happen at the open today did not materialize. Instead the SPX continued higher after a choppy opening. This choppiness was the conclusion of a small inverted corrective wave as the Wave from Monday’s 1948.36 low extended to 1993.99. After that the index did undergo a slight pullback to 1986.04 before continuing higher. On the 5 Minute Chart you will see the short term wave I am tracking from Friday’s 1939.19 low. So far Wave 1 has completed at 1963.06, and today Wave 2 at 1986.04.

Yesterday I mentioned an alternate count that would have Wave [d] completing at 1939.19, which would have Wave [e] completing above 2002. The count from that point so far supports that.  This can be seen on the 15 Minute Chart.

I am still expecting a further drop in the SPX to below 1748 after the first week in October. I had mentioned some time ago an alternate count that would have 1903.07 as the low for this correction. The decision point for these two scenarios would be 2028. If the SPX holds below 2028 my current scenario remains intact. If the index moves above that point, the alternate count would seem more likely.