Tuesday's Market 09/15/2015

After seemingly searching for direction yesterday, the SPX settled on moving higher today. From yesterday afternoon’s 1948.36 low, the index completed a 5 wave sequence higher to today’s 1983.19 high. Waves 1, 2, and 3 completed yesterday, along with Wave a of an inverted corrective Wave 4. This completed at 1967.01, and was followed by the surge to 1983.19 for Wave 5.

Along with my count from yesterday, this presents an interesting scenario. If you remember I moved my label for Wave [d] and Wave (D).  These waves, along with the first several waves I described yesterday actually form a complete 5 wave sequence as 1938.37-1911.21-1988.63-1967.72-1965.29-1939.19, meaning Wave [d] completed at that point, and the SPX has yet to complete Wave (D). So the index could move lower at the outset tomorrow, and then rally into Thursday. The target for this scenario would be 2002, slightly above the 2001 level I mentioned yesterday.

Even if the SPX breaches that 2001 level, there are still counts that would get it down to 1748, which remains my target. It should be an interesting couple of days.

Monday's Market 09/14/2015

The SPX continues its holding pattern, with the index trading in a comparatively narrow 15 point range today. From last Wednesday’s 1988.63 high, the SPX completed a 5 wave sequence down to 1967.72, and then formed an inverted corrective wave to 1965.29. Another sequenced down completed at 1939.19, one up at 1963.06, and another one down to 1948.36. In the short term this action seems non-committal, with a count supporting either a move higher or lower being possible.

In the medium term, I have one made one revision to my count. Looking at the count from the September 1^st 1903.07 low, I had originally labeled the move to 1938.37 as Wave [c], the drop to 191964 as Wave [d], and the rise to 1975.01 as Wave [e] to possibly end Wave (D) on the Daily chart. The better count has a complex corrective wave forming from 1938.37 to 1911.21, for Wave [d], and Wave (D) completing at 1988.63.

This in no way alters my longer term outlook that the SPX has been in a complex corrective wave since the 2019.26 high last September that should complete below 1748 sometime after the first week of October. Any short term move would not change this, unless the index moves above 2001.

Thursday's Market 09/03.2015

The SPX gapped higher this morning, reaching 1965.52 within the first half hour, and then continuing higher to 1975.01. This completed a 5 wave sequence from yesterday’s 1919.64 Wave [d] low. This sequence completed as 1919.64-1931.59-1920.29-1938.03-1929.00-1975.01 within the 1961.1989 range I mentioned yesterday for Wave [e]. From that point the SPX moved lower to 1963.73, and had a minor bounce to 1966.73. I have labeled these as a Wave 1, followed by Wave A. The index then completed a sequence lower to 1947.84 as 1966.73-1958.05-1961.75-1951.16-1959.34-1947.84, for Wave B. A more substantial bounce to 1958.87 which completed Wave C. One more move lower to 1944.72 completed Wave D, and the bounce near the close to 1956.28 Wave E and Wave 2 from today’s high.

Putting this all into context, this morning’s rise to 1975.01 completed Wave [e], and as I discussed yesterday Wave (D). This would mean that the SPX is now poised to make the next move lower towards my 1748 minimum target to complete the corrective wave from 2019.26 as seen on the daily chart. The implication of this afternoon’s drop, a Wave 1 followed by an inverted corrective Wave 2, is that this initial move lower has not completed, and the SPX should continue lower from this point.

Again as discussed yesterday, unless 1993.48 is broken to the upside, the SPX should head lower to below 1748. If Wave (D) did complete today, the first 4 waves of the sequence can now be used to project Wave (E). Those waves from the 2019.26 high, 2019.26-1820.66-2079.46-1972.56-1975.01 indicate that the termination point should be below 1744. This agrees quite well with the 1748 projection given by the first 4 waves of the inverted corrective wave from 1219.80, 1219.80-1010.91-1370.58-1074.77-2019.26.