Wednesday, February 21, 2024

NVDA Earnings - 5WaveModel Long-Term Count

 

Arguably the most anticipated event of this trading week will be the NVDA earnings, scheduled for Wednesday after close. The historic run in this stock has been well documented over the past year and a half, with the AI frenzy fueling an incredible run over that period. In October 2022 NVDA traded as low as $108.13, and recently traded as high as $746.11. Nearly a seven-fold increase in less than 16 months.

This kind of run has not been unprecedented for NVDA. This run was preceded by an eleven-fold increase from January 2019 to November 2021 when NVDA went from $31.11 to $346.47.

In this post I will outline my long-term count for NVDA. This chart begins with the inception of NVDA and brings us to the current outlook.

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Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Tuesday Update 02/20/2024

 The markets started the week on a bearish note after the long weekend. A gap down opened the week, as SPY fell to 497.60. The markets continued to work their way lower through the early morning, with SPY eventually falling to 495.75 just after 10:30. SPY tried to rally from there, but only managed to make it 497.30 just after 11:00. Another round of selling took the markets lower during the rest of the morning, and into early afternoon. Shortly after 12:30, SPY fell to it's low of the day at 494.45. From there the markets again tried to stage a rally, and SPY moved higher through most of the afternoon. Soon after 3:00, SPY was sitting at 496.88, but then a sharp drop found it testing the 495 level once again. SPY did rally in the final minutes, fighting back to 496.83 before closing at 496.76.


In our weekend update we detailed our current count, with a focus on the current wave from the January 5,2024 low of 466.43. It is our contention that this is Wave 5 from the October 2022 low of 348.11. We project this wave to complete at a minimum of 517, with a working target of 530. Shorter term we are still looking for a low of 490 - 491. We don't rule out a drop somewhat lower, near 480, but 477 is the lower limit for the current count. We would then expect a move taking SPY above 517.



Sunday, February 18, 2024

Weekend Update 02/18/2024

 The week started on a positive note, as SPY opened higher on Monday, getting as high as 503.50 during the morning. It gave up those gains during the afternoon, dropping near the 500 level before closing slightly below Friday's close. A disappointing CPI report sent the market lower on Tuesday, breaking through the 500 level, and back down to the 490 level. The remainder of the week was spent recovering from that drop, with SPY getting back above 500 on Thursday and Friday, but closing the week just below that level at 499.51.