Monday's Market 10/27/2014

The SPX has been rallying since it hit a low of 1820.66 on October 15^th. The index made an initial move to 1869.00, which I am counting as Wave 1 of a 5 wave sequence to the upside.  From there the SPX pulled back to 1835.02. This looks to be Wave A of an inverted corrective Wave 2. As is often the case, Wave B of this inverted corrective wave has been the most powerful to this point. This wave carried the SPX up to 1949.31. Another pullback to 1926.83 followed which I have labeled Wave C of 2. Wave D is currently underway, with a target of 1975. After this wave completes, the SPX should pill back once more to complete Wave E, and the inverted corrective Wave 2. This pullback should be proportional to the first two pullbacks, with the first being 34 points, and the second 22 points.  This last pullback should therefore be slightly less than 22 points, and I currently have a target of 1956. After that the SPX should move higher to complete Waves 3, 4, and 5.

Shorter term, the SPX from the 1926.83 low completed the first wave at 1961.95. Wave 2 completed this morning at 1951.37. I am looking for Wave 3 to complete at 1970, Wave 4 at 1967, and Wave 5 at 1975. If this plays out, the move lower to 1956 discussed above would follow.

Thursday's Market 10/23/2014

The SPX moved higher from the opening bell today, rising to 1849.56. After a small pullback the index rose first to 1953.09, and then 1957.65. The first substantial pullback followed from that point, as the SPX fell to 1951.82. After that one more move higher occurred, taking the index to 1961.95. From that point the SPX began to pullback in earnest, falling to 1949.11 before bouncing back to 1955.15. One final move lower took the index down to 1948.12 shortly before the close.

As I discussed yesterday, the SPX completed a 5 wave sequence from the 1835.02 low yesterday at 1949.31. This looks to be the first wave of a larger degree sequence from that low. The first three waves of an inverted corrective Wave 2 occurred yesterday, with today’s rally completing the fourth wave.  The current decline looks to be the fifth wave.

Given this count the SPX should continue lower tomorrow, with a target of 1935-1933. After that I would look for a continuing of the advance from 1835.02, with a target of 1980.

Wednesday's Market 10/22/2014

The SPX did not hit y target price of 1960-1985 today, and then dropped below 1929.35, the point at which I said would invalidate my short term count. Given those facts, it is most likely that a 5 wave sequence from 1877.55 completed today at 1949.31 as 1877.55-1896.60-1891.55-1834.30-1929.3.5-1949.31. This also may have completed a sequence from 1835.02 as 1835.02-1867.82-1852.17-1898.16-1877.55-1949.31. If so, the next thing I would be looking at is an inverted corrective wave from the previous high, or 1869.00. The pullback from today’s high took the form 1935.24-1941.24-1926.83. The five waves from 1969.00, 1835.02-1949.31-1935.24-1941.24-1926.83, falls just shy of the requirements for a completed 5 wave sequence.

Yesterday I said that the SPX may undergo a substantial pullback once it completes the current wave. That now does not appear to be the case. If the SPX moves higher from this point, the sequence from 1835.02 is extending, pointing to higher prices. If the SPX drops, it would likely complete an inverted corrective wave from 1869.00, again pointing to higher prices. This inverted wave would complete anywhere down to 1907. With the index falling just short of the point needed to complete this wave, it seems more likely that the wave from 1835.02 is extending.