Thursday's Market 03/28/2013

The SPX opened higher today, reaching 1565.09, falling just short of my 1565.50 upper limit that would end this move from 1538.57. That limit was derived from the highest price that would complete a 5 Wave sequence from the aforementioned low, given the pattern of 5 Wave sequences completed thus far. A move above that point would signal a different wave structure was underway, and a structure indicating higher prices was forming. After pulling back to 1561.08, the market once again moved higher, this time surpassing my 1565.50 limit, and continuing on to 1568.30. Another pullback followed, this time taking the index to 1564.42, before the market rose for a final time. This rise was more sustained, and topped out at 1570.28 just before the close.

 

I indicated yesterday that I had expected a lower opening, which was based on the market having completed a 5 Wave sequence at 1567.04. The dip yesterday from that high, the higher open today, and the first decline this morning to 1561.08 formed a semi-inverted corrective wave from that high. From 1561.08 the market traced out a 5 Wave sequence to 1568.30, which included an inverted corrective wave. Following the 5 Wave sequence decline to 1564.42, the market formed one final 5 Wave sequence to the day’s high of 1570.28.

 

Looking at the 15 Minute chart, the larger formation from the 1538.57 low is becoming clearer. It is now evident that the market is still in Wave 3 from the 667 low. The next possible 5 Wave sequence that may form is from the 1546.22 low. It appears that 3 Waves have formed up to the 1570.28 high, leaving Waves 4, and 5. From 1570 we are likely to see a pullback to 1557, a rise to 1574, followed by another pullback to 1548.

I will elaborate on this count over the weekend.

Thank you.

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday's Market 03/27/2013

The more things change, the more they remain the same. After starting the trading session to the downside as anticipated, the market quickly turned around. By the end of the session, the market had pushed slightly into positive territory, and finished within a point of yesterday’s close.

 

The market opened to the downside, falling below 1552 to 1551.90, which proved to be the low of the day. The next several hours saw the market gain back nearly ten points, rising to 1561.19. After a pullback to just below 1558, the market rallied the rest of the day; edging out yesterday’s high before pulling back into the close.

The market completed a 5 Wave sequence from the low of the day to the high, indicating the market may move lower at the outset tomorrow morning. However, the market is just as likely to rise off that low as it did today.

While my bias is still for this market to move lower, I am still looking at a break above 1565.50 as an indication that the market will move higher. A drop below 1545.90 will confirm a breakout to the downside.

Thank you for your interest and support.

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday's Market 03/26/2013

Although the market enjoyed a strong move higher today, nothing in that move changed my current view of the wave count I have been talking about since this weekend. That count has Wave 1 from 666.79 terminating at 1370.58. Wave 2 turned out to be a rather lengthy inverted corrective wave that eventually ended last Tuesday at 1538.57. From there I have Waves 3, 4, and 5 terminating at 1561.56, 1543.55, and 1564.91 respectively.

 

The market jumped this morning above 1558 in the opening minutes of trading. The action became a bit choppier from that point, with the SPX hitting 1561.59 before pulling back. That pullback took the market to 1556.45. The market then traded within that range over the next several hours before hitting a new high for the day. The SPX eventually made it to 1563.95, and closed just off that high.

This entire move was the completion of a single 5 Wave sequence from yesterday’s 1546.22 low. Wave 1 ended yesterday at 1555.59, with Wave 2 an inverted corrective wave that completed today at 1556.45. Wave 2 of this wave was also an inverted corrective wave, of which this morning’s spike higher was the main feature. Waves 3, 4, and 5 then completed, with Wave 5 carrying the market to 1560.77. This then became Wave 1 of a higher degree wave. Wave 2 was again an inverted corrective wave, and Wave 5 completed at 1562.95.

With a 5 Wave sequence from 1546.22 now completed, and the market still below yesterday’s high, now would be the time for the market to move lower. I am still looking for a move below 1545.90 to confirm 1564.91 as the completion of Wave 5 from 666.79.

There are several alternatives for the market. If the market manages to make a slightly higher high, it would complete a 5 Wave sequence from 1538.83 Wave 2 low. This would imply that only Wave 3 has completed. A pullback for Wave 4 would be expected, and then at least one more move higher for Wave 5.

If the market breaks through the 1565.5, it would mean that Wave 3 still has further to go. This would then be followed by Waves 4, and 5.  

Thank you. Your interest, support, and comments are much appreciated.