Weekend Outlook 09/23/12

 

After having reached a new uptrend high of 1474.51 the previous Friday, the market started off the week by continuing to consolidate those gains. Monday proved to be a down day for the market, with the market falling to 1456.13. After hitting this point, the market tried to rally over the next several days, but that rally was somewhat subdued, with the market making it back only to 1465.15, before turning lower once again. The market then dropped sharply at Thursday’s open, falling to 1449.98. The market staged a more robust rally from there, rising to 1461 on Thursday, and then opening strongly to the upside on Friday, hitting 1467.07 before falling back. By the end of the day Friday, the SPX had given up its earlier gains, dropping back to 1459.51 near the close.

 

My current count had the high of 1438.74 that occurred on September 10^th as the completion of a 5 wave sequence from the 1267 low. From that high, the market has now completed an inverted corrective wave 2, which ended at Thursday’s low of 1449.98. This sequence took the form 1438.74-1428.98-1274.51-1456.13-1466.76-1459.51. If this count proves to be correct, I would expect a resumption of the uptrend. My target for the next move higher remains 1497.

Short term support is 1455-1452 if the market moves lower; with a move below 1449.98 most likely meaning my count is wrong.

 

 

Thursday's Market 09/20/12

The market opened sharply lower today, continuing the slide from yesterday afternoon’s 1465 high. The market first fell to 1453 and after a slight bounce to 1455, dropped to 1450. From that point the market started to rally, rising to 1458.77 by midday. This was followed by a pullback to 1455, and the another rally to 1461.23. The market then dipped near the close, hitting 1458.58, and then rose into the close.

 

Yesterday I said the rise from 1456 to 1465 appeared to be 3 waves of a 5 wave sequence. This, in fact, turned out to be the completion of a 5 wave sequence. The drop this morning then completed a 5 wave sequence from 1465. I also said that should the market fall below 1456, support should come in near 1450. On this count I was right, as the market fell to 1449.98, and then rallied the rest of the day.

 

On the 15 Minute chart, I have labeled today’s 1449.98 low as the completion of the 5 wave inverted corrective wave 2 from 1438.74 that I have been alluding to lately. If this count is correct, the market should now resume the rally from 1266.74. My next target is 1497. If the market drops below 1450 at this point, the next support level would be 1426.

 

 

Wednesday's Market 09/19/12

The market opened slightly higher this morning, hitting 1460 before pulling back to 1458. That pullback was followed by a sharp move higher to 1463. That rally was quickly followed by another move back to 1458, before the market moved higher once again, this time moving up to 1465. After a pullback to 1462, the market rallied back to 1465, but failed to move above the previous high. The market then moved lower near the close, with the drop accelerating into the close, dropping the market to 1461.

 

The move to 1465.15 today seems to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1456.61. This would mean that three waves have completed from 1456.13. If this is wave 4 of that sequence, it should terminate near this level in order to project wave 5 to my target of 1497.

If the market continues lower, it should find support first near 1450, and then 1426.