Wednesday's Market 09/19/12

The market opened slightly higher this morning, hitting 1460 before pulling back to 1458. That pullback was followed by a sharp move higher to 1463. That rally was quickly followed by another move back to 1458, before the market moved higher once again, this time moving up to 1465. After a pullback to 1462, the market rallied back to 1465, but failed to move above the previous high. The market then moved lower near the close, with the drop accelerating into the close, dropping the market to 1461.

 

The move to 1465.15 today seems to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1456.61. This would mean that three waves have completed from 1456.13. If this is wave 4 of that sequence, it should terminate near this level in order to project wave 5 to my target of 1497.

If the market continues lower, it should find support first near 1450, and then 1426.

 

 

Tuesday's Market 09/18/12

After opening slightly higher this morning, the market quickly moved lower, making a slightly lower low than yesterday at 1456.13. After rallying back to 1461, the market fell back to 1457, and then traded in a narrow trading range for the remainder of the session.

 

I mentioned yesterday the possibility of the market making slightly lower lows today, and that is what happened at the start of today’s session. With the move to 1456.13, the market completed yet another 5 wave sequence from the 1474.51 high.

 

The market would appear to be reaching a point of decision. I still expect the market to move higher, with a target of 1497. If the market fails to hold near this 1456 level, it could mean a move back to minimally 1448-1444, and possibly back to the 1426 support level.

 

 

 

Monday's Market 09/17/12

After reaching a new uptrend high of 1474.51 on Friday, the market pulled back, completing a 5 wave sequence to the downside at 1461.54. After moving higher into the close on Friday, the market continued to consolidate its gains at today’s open, dropping back to 1462. The market then spent the rest of the morning, and early afternoon, trading in a very narrow range. In the last several hours of trading, the market broke through that trading range to the downside, first moving to 1459, and then after a slight bounce, down to 1457.55. Once again, the market moved slightly higher into the close.

 

The market completed another 5 wave sequence from 1474.51 at 1457.55, meaning the rally could continue from this point. If the market can move above 1461.62, I would expect the market to continue higher, with my target remaining at 1497. The market could still consolidate further, but if it moves lower, I would expect only slightly lower lows from this point.

 

Longer term, I see this as wave 5 from 667, with my target at the moment being above 1560. Wave 4 from 667 terminated at 1267. The market completed wave 1 of 5 at 1438.74, with the market in the process of completing what appears to be an inverted corrective wave 2.