As strange as it sounds, the SPX did NOT make an
all-time high today.
The SPX gapped lower this morning, and within
minutes the index had fallen to 1635.53. From there the SPX bounced to 1647, and
after a small pullback, continued higher to 1654. The index then fell back to
1645, before heading higher to 1655.50, thus closing the opening gap. After
that the SPX drifted lower into the close, dropping to 1648.82.
In yesterday’s post I indicated the market may
move lower, giving a target of 1641. This would have completed a 5 wave
sequence from the 1687.18 high as 1687.18-1672.96-1660.80-1648.86-1655.43-1641.
Today’s lower opening exceeded the lower limit for this count, which most
likely means that today’s 1635.53 low only completed wave 3 of the sequence.
This was confirmed as the move from 1660.80 completed a 5 wave sequence at that
low. This was followed by a 5 wave sequence higher to 1655.50, which should be wave
4 of the sequence. If this count is correct, wave 5 of this sequence should
complete between 1632 and 1623. This should in turn complete Wave 4 from 1074.77, and set the
stage for one more move to new highs before a larger correction develops.
So, for the short term, I am expecting a move
lower to 1632-1623, followed by a move to new highs. If the SPX moves above
1661 from this point, I would expect the market to continue higher to new high
territory.
Thank you.
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