The market gapped up at the open, and continued to a new uptrend high at 1378.23 in the first few minutes of trading. The market then turned lower, giving up all of the early gains, and then some, as the SPX dropped to 1371.21. Another rally followed the pullback, and the market soon found itself once again in new uptrend high territory. This time the SPX made it to 1380.39, before pulling back again. The market again dropped near the 1372 level, and then staged a choppy rally back near 1378 into the close.
The early morning run up, and subsequent drop, appears to have been part of a semi-inverted corrective wave from Wednesday afternoon’s high. The following move to 1380 completed a 5 wave sequence from 1368.70, and wave 3 from 1325.41. We may have seen wave 4 with the pullback to 1372. If so, the market should be in wave 5, which could complete a 5 wave sequence from 1267.
In Wednesday’s Medium Term Update, I outlined a scenario for a 5 wave sequence from 1267 being close to completion. The current target for that wave would be between 1383, and 1397. If my current count is correct, I can narrow that forecast to between 1383 and 1384.
I will say again that the wave structure lately has been very complex, and there is a scenario in which this would complete wave 3 from 1267, and not wave 5. The projections for each are similar, with the wave 3 scenario most likely terminating between 1390 and 1391. This should clear up shortly, but as stated, the projected highs for each scenario are similar.
If the market moves up to 1383-1384, and then drops below 1372.33, it is most likely that a 5 wave sequence from 1267 has completed. Support is at 1367, 1357, and 1333-1336. Resistance is at 1383-1384, 1390-1391, and 1426.
No comments:
Post a Comment