Well, I was completely wrong about where the market was headed today. I was looking for a move higher, initially to 1378, and then possibly 1393. Instead, after a small move higher at the open, the market headed lower, and stayed there throughout the day.
After opening slightly to the upside, the market quickly reversed course, and headed lower to 1368. After a short consolidation, the market headed lower again, bottoming at 1363. The market did rally off that low, moving back above 1371 before headed back down to 1368. Another move to the upside took the market back near break-even to 1374. The market could not hold this level, and quickly sold off again, dropping below 1368 near the close.
I have become concerned recently with the projections becoming increasingly higher. The original projections for wave 3 from 1267 were 1393, and 1475-1480. Projections for the smaller waves have been higher, and higher, and have begun to exceed the 1475-1480 level, which is not realistic. I was looking for a further correction after hitting 1365, but that did not materialize. A correction back to the 1325-1326 level would have been ideal. The other possibility is that I have missed a wave at some point, just as I did on Tuesday. After getting the 5 wave sequence from 1355 to 1365 correct, I saw the move after that as waves 1, 2, and 3 of another sequence, when actually 1374.81 completed another 5 wave sequence from 1355.
There are several possibilities for the move today, one of which is that the market is undergoing a complex correction from 1365. If it is, we may see that correction to 1325-1326 I was looking for earlier. For now, I will look at support and resistance, and projections for an up move and a down move. To the upside, there is resistance at 1374, 1392, and 1393. To the downside, support is 1367, 1359, 1356, and 1326-1323. If the market moves higher, the initial targets are 1374, or 1382. The downside projection is 1356-1359.
Longer term, this does not change my outlook of 1393, or 1475-1480 as the next SPX targets.
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