Weekend Outlook 11/17/2013

Since the inception of this bull market in March 2009, the SPX first completed a 5 wave sequence at 1219.80. A second sequence completed at 1010.91, and was followed by a sequence higher at 1370.58. After a fourth sequence completed at 1074.77, the index has embarked on a comparatively lengthy sequence higher. Since there appears to be no danger of the current sequence completing a sequence from 666.79, this bull would seem to have further to run.

Of more immediate interest is the current status of the sequence from 1074.77. In my Weekend Outlook on 10/20/13, (http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2013/10/weekend-outlook-10202013.html), I outlined a scenario in which the SPX was forming a sequence that eventually would be composed of 17 individual waves, with the index currently in the 13^th wave. It is difficult to estimate a target for this sequence at the moment, but it is a bullish scenario which likely would carry the SPX much higher. The key to this scenario is that from here until the completion of the sequence, the previous low cannot be broken. Since I have the current wave beginning at 1646.47, the ensuing decline would have to remain above that level. The same would be true for any subsequent declines until the final wave has completed.

Some of you may recall that prior to this I had proposed a different scenario suggesting that if a 5 wave sequence completed from the 1560.33 low above 1776, it may complete the sequence from 1074.77. Lately I have given this scenario a lower probability, but after spending quite a bit of time reviewing all my charts this past week, this scenario is once again looking very interesting. This count has waves 1, 2, and 3 from 1074.77 completing at 1292.66-1158.66-1422.38. From there the SPX formed a 5 wave inverted corrective wave 4 at 1266.74-1474.51-1343.35-1687.18-1560.33, and projects wave 5 to complete above 1776. Since the SPX has now surpassed that level, it seems prudent to at least give this count some merit.

So the key to this count is the sequence from 1560.33. From that low, 1709.36 marked the termination point of wave 1. The following correction to 1627.47 is what differentiates the two aforementioned scenarios. Up until this point, all the waves from 1074.77 are the same for the two scenarios, the only difference being the degree of the wave. For the first scenario, the correction from 1709.36 to 1627.47 would have to be a single 5 wave sequence. This is what I had originally counted, but it technically looks like 3 sequences, 1639.43-1669.51-1627.47. If this is the case, the second scenario presented becomes much more probable.

Assuming there were three waves from 1709.36, the next two moves, to 1729.86 and 1646.27, then complete an inverted corrective wave 2. The move from 1646.27 to 1774.54 was extremely complex, and I have had several different working counts. The best one actually has this as a single sequence, and would then be wave 3. The pullback to 1746.20 then completed wave 4, meaning wave 5 is underway. Given the structure so far, this would project to above 1828.

If this count is correct, the SPX needs only to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1746.20 above 1828 to complete the entire sequence from 1074.77. Looking at this wave, I have wave 1 completing at 1773.44. The three waves down are then most likely waves A, B, and C of an inverted corrective wave 2. Wave D of this sequence appears to have completed Friday at 1798.19. If so, the SPX should now see a pullback, and then a final move to above 1828. Support would be at 1794, and then 1784.

In the next day or two, I would be looking for a pullback to 1794 or 1784. 1784 would fit better with the inverted corrective wave, so that seems more likely. If the SPX then forges ahead and moves above 1828, the sequence from 1074.77 may be complete. It should be an interesting week. 

Thursday's Market 11/14/2013

After a slightly lower opening, the SPX wasted little time before reaching a new all time high. After hitting 1784.80, the index underwent a slight correction, dropping to 1780.22. A quick move higher brought the SPX to 1790.80, and after another small correction, the index rose steadily throughout the afternoon, hitting 1791.53 just before the close.

By rising above 1791, one count that would have indicated the completion of the wave from 1074.77 was eliminated. It now appears that this market still has higher to go. At the moment I am still waiting for the SPX to complete the sequence from the 1646.47 low that may complete the larger sequence. From the 1646.47 low, the best count has wave 2 of that sequence completing at 1746.20. Wave 3 is now underway.

Given the recent run-up, a pullback at some point would not be surprising, and a move lower of slightly more than 11 points would fit nicely. But the market could continue higher before that happens.

With what appears to be several waves before this upside move concludes, it is difficult to give targets, but a move to around 1828 seems reasonable. These targets will hopefully become clearer as the wave structure progresses.

Wednesday's Market 11/13/2013

I was a bit premature in calling yesterday afternoon’s low of 1762.29 the completion of a 5 wave sequence from the 1773.44 high. Instead of the SPX moving higher at the open, as I expected, it moved lower.  After gapping lower, the index reached a low of 1760.44 before heading higher. It did not take long for the SPX to close that opening gap, and after a brief pullback it continued higher until reaching 1776.33. As I have been pointing out, this was a critical level as it marks the minimum point at which the sequence from 1074.77 could complete.  From there the index underwent another very minor pullback before heading higher into the close. It closed on the high of the day at 1781.87.

Following the opening dip, the SPX completed a sequence at the 1781.87 high. Wave 1 finished at 1765.80, wave 2 at 1762.66, and wave 3 at 1767.73. Wave 4 was an inverted corrective wave which ended at 1773.49, with 1781.87 then completing wave 5. I had been looking for a move to 1782 to complete a sequence from 1746.20, and possibly 1646.47, which would in turn complete a sequence from 1560.33, and 1074.77. I had expected been expecting to see 5 waves from 1746.20, but at the moment I see only three waves at 1773.44-1760.44-1781.87.

If my current count is correct, that would mean the SPX should have at least one more move to the upside. This wave would have to complete below 1787 in order to complete a sequence from 1646.47. A move down to 1767-1773, followed by a move higher would target a level below 1787. A move above 1787 would likely mean a further continuation of this move, as hard as it is to believe. At the moment it looks like 1829 would be a minimum target.

There is an alternate count from 1646.47 that would not require another wave, and has an upside limit of 1791. This count has the inverted corrective wave 2 completing at 1746.20, wave 3 at 1773.44, and wave 4 at 1760.64. That makes the current wave the fifth and final wave.  This would complete the entire sequence from 1074.77.

A lot of variables I know, but the market is at one of those points. The current wave could complete between today’s high and 1791. A move below 1760.64 would likely mean the sequence from 1074.77 has completed. If the SPX moves above 1791, 1829 would be my next upside target.