Thursday's Market 09/20/12

The market opened sharply lower today, continuing the slide from yesterday afternoon’s 1465 high. The market first fell to 1453 and after a slight bounce to 1455, dropped to 1450. From that point the market started to rally, rising to 1458.77 by midday. This was followed by a pullback to 1455, and the another rally to 1461.23. The market then dipped near the close, hitting 1458.58, and then rose into the close.

 

Yesterday I said the rise from 1456 to 1465 appeared to be 3 waves of a 5 wave sequence. This, in fact, turned out to be the completion of a 5 wave sequence. The drop this morning then completed a 5 wave sequence from 1465. I also said that should the market fall below 1456, support should come in near 1450. On this count I was right, as the market fell to 1449.98, and then rallied the rest of the day.

 

On the 15 Minute chart, I have labeled today’s 1449.98 low as the completion of the 5 wave inverted corrective wave 2 from 1438.74 that I have been alluding to lately. If this count is correct, the market should now resume the rally from 1266.74. My next target is 1497. If the market drops below 1450 at this point, the next support level would be 1426.

 

 

Wednesday's Market 09/19/12

The market opened slightly higher this morning, hitting 1460 before pulling back to 1458. That pullback was followed by a sharp move higher to 1463. That rally was quickly followed by another move back to 1458, before the market moved higher once again, this time moving up to 1465. After a pullback to 1462, the market rallied back to 1465, but failed to move above the previous high. The market then moved lower near the close, with the drop accelerating into the close, dropping the market to 1461.

 

The move to 1465.15 today seems to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1456.61. This would mean that three waves have completed from 1456.13. If this is wave 4 of that sequence, it should terminate near this level in order to project wave 5 to my target of 1497.

If the market continues lower, it should find support first near 1450, and then 1426.

 

 

Tuesday's Market 09/18/12

After opening slightly higher this morning, the market quickly moved lower, making a slightly lower low than yesterday at 1456.13. After rallying back to 1461, the market fell back to 1457, and then traded in a narrow trading range for the remainder of the session.

 

I mentioned yesterday the possibility of the market making slightly lower lows today, and that is what happened at the start of today’s session. With the move to 1456.13, the market completed yet another 5 wave sequence from the 1474.51 high.

 

The market would appear to be reaching a point of decision. I still expect the market to move higher, with a target of 1497. If the market fails to hold near this 1456 level, it could mean a move back to minimally 1448-1444, and possibly back to the 1426 support level.