Tuesday's Market 07/02/2013

I mentioned yesterday that today’s first move would most likely be to the downside. That turned out to be the case, as the SPX gapped down at the open, pulling back to 1613.07, but remaining above yesterday afternoon’s 1612.85 low. After that lower open, the index moved higher, fairly steeply at first, climbing to 1621.98 within the first half hour, at which point the trading turned choppier as the SPX churned its way up to 1624.26. This was reminiscent of yesterday’s open, with a steep climb leading to a choppy high. As was the case yesterday, the choppy trading led to a short term top, followed by a sharp decline. Unlike yesterday, however, today’s decline dropped below the previous close, and then continued down to 1606.77. After reaching that level, the SPX tried to recover, moving back up to first 1612.65, and then 1615.01 near the close after a small pullback.

From yesterday afternoon’s 1612.85 low, the SPX completed the first wave of a sequence at 1616.11. This morning’s lower opening then became the first wave of an inverted corrective wave. This inverted correction completed at 1620.39, and was followed by the completion of the sequence from 1612.85 at 1624.26. The first wave of the subsequent decline ended at 1618.07, which was again followed by an inverted second wave, which terminated at 1610.15. The 5 wave decline from 1624.26 then terminated at 1606.77, close to the 1605 support level I spoke of yesterday. From that point, the SPX completed 3 waves higher to 1615.01.

Looking at the entire wave structure from the 1626.61 high, it appears that yesterday afternoon’s decline to 1612.85 was the first wave in a 5 wave sequence to the downside. This morning’s climb to 1624.26 was likely the first wave of an inverted corrective sequence. The decline to 1606.77 was the second wave, with the three waves higher into the close completing the inverted corrective sequence. It is now likely that the SPX will move lower to complete the sequence from 1626.61. I would still characterize this as the fourth wave of a sequence from 1560.33.

I am looking for a lower open to the day tomorrow. I would still expect this wave to end near the 1605 support level. If the index falls below 1601.06, I would need to re-evaluate my count. Up to this point nothing has occurred to alter my view of this being the fourth wave from 1560.33. Wave 1 completed at 1589.13, with an inverted corrective wave 2 completing at 1601.06. Wave 3 then completed at 1626.61. Wave 4 should finish near 1605, and be followed by wave 5 to 1631. Keep in mind that this will in turn be the first wave of a higher degree wave, and second waves are often inverted corrective waves. This could mean a shallow correction, followed by a swift move higher. But I do not want to get too far ahead of myself. For now, the level to watch is 1601.06. Unless that level is broken, I look for a move higher to 1631.

Thank you.

Monday's Market 07/01/2013

I stated in Friday’s post that it appeared the SPX had completed a semi-inverted corrective wave at 1606.24, and that the index was poised to make a swift run up to 1631. The SPX gapped up this morning, and reached 1619.32 before pulling back. That pullback was brief, with the SPX only dropping to 1617.19 before moving higher. The index rose to 1626.18, and then pulled back to 1622.37. From there the SPX chopped its way to a new intra-day high at 1626.61. After that the action was predominately to the downside. First the SPX dropped to 1622.86, and then traded sideways before falling further to 1617.18. Then, after bouncing above 1621, the index dropped to 1612.85 before rising slightly into the close.

I also mentioned on Friday that appeared that the completion of the wave from 1601.06 would be only wave 3 from the 1560.33 low, and that this wave may complete as 1621-1619-1631. Today’s initial move to 1619 was slightly below the 1621 projection, but appears to be Wave 3 1601.06. Wave 4 was the small pullback to 1617.19, and the move to 1626.61 completed the sequence.

After that the index completed a 5 Wave sequence to the downside that completed at 1615.27, followed by a higher degree sequence that completed at 1612.85. This is close to the first support of 1611. This could be the completion of Wave 4 from 1560, with the Wave 5 target still at that 1631 level.

There is some indication that Tuesday’s first move may be to the downside, and if it is, the next support is at 1605. I would fully expect this pullback to hold above the 1601.06 low. Where ever this current Wave 4 ends, it appears the target is still near 1631.

Thank you.

Friday's Market 06/28/2013

Now that was fun! It seems that whenever one side gets too comfortable, the market throws in a day that tests the resolve of both sides. Today was such a day. The Bears took the early lead, starting the day off with a gap down, and then continuing to move the SPX lower, until it reached 1607.85. A small bounce took the index back to 1610, but the selling took hold once again, and the SPX dropped back near the 1600 level, settling at 1601.06. That was all the Bulls needed to get started, pushing the SPX back up into positive territory for the day in just over an hour. This move brought the SPX to 1615.64, where the Bears tried to move the market lower. They succeeded to a point, dropping the index to 1607.38 before the Bulls came back. They moved the SPX to 1615.94, just taking out the previous intra-day high. Another push down took the SPX to 1609.38, which fell short of the 1607.38 low. The next move higher stopped short of both previous intra-day highs, stopping at 1615.49. However, just as it looked like the SPX might finish positive for the day, the index dropped precipitously in the last half hour most notably in the last few minutes of trading. This drop took out the two previous intra-day lows, but stopped short of the early morning 1601.06 low, at 1606.24.

From Thursday’s 1620.07 high, I was anticipating a zig-zag like move lower, and given Thursday’s drop to 1611.94, and subsequent rebound, I was expecting this pattern to end near 1608. The initial drop to 1607.38 looked the completion of this pattern, but the drop through that level to 1601 fell outside my model’s parameters for that count, and started to indicate a more bearish count. However, the drop from 1620 to 1607 actually completed in a 5 Wave sequence, with the rebound to 1610, and drop to 1601 actually completed the pattern I was looking for, albeit at a slightly lower level than anticipated. This completed the inverted corrective wave from 1589 that I spoke of yesterday, and most likely marks a near term low.

From that point things got very interesting. First, the SPX completed a 5 Wave sequence up to 1615.64. This was followed by a series of sequences, 1607.38-1615.94-1609.38-1615.49, and finally the move down to 1606.24. Notice that from the 1615.64 high (and yes, some snicker at my choice of time frames, and affinity for precision), the SPX fell to 1607.38. The index then made a slightly higher high at 1615.94, followed by a higher low at 1609.38. The next high fell short of both the 1615.94, and 1615.64 highs. This was followed by a move down that ended lower than the 1607.38 low, but remained above the 1601.06 low. This appears to be a classic semi-inverted corrective wave, with the 1606.24 low satisfying my model for this wave, although the range was extremely tight. This development could point to a very bullish scenario, at least in the short term.

In the very near term, this wave structure points to a target near the 1631 price level that I have previously mentioned. Moves from this structure are usually swift, and I would be looking for something like 1621-1616-1631 to complete the 5 Wave sequence from 1601.

The second thing to keep in mind is the count from the 1560 low. I had been expecting 1631 to complete 5 waves from this low, but it is now more likely that 1631 will mark the completion of only Wave 3. Since Wave 2 from 1560 was a complex corrective wave, the rally to 1615.64 most likely cannot be Wave 3, since it too was followed by a complex corrective wave. In the vast majority of instances only one corrective wave in a sequence can be complex. This would point to a continuation of the move from 1560 beyond the 1631 level.

I apologize for getting extremely technical, but sometimes I feel it necessary. If you made it to this point, I thank you, and offer this alternate version. I believe 1601.06 will hold for some time. The next move should be higher, something like 1621-1616-1631. 1631 will then be Wave 3 from 1560, and after a small pullback from that point, the SPX should move higher once again to complete 5 Waves from 1560.