Wednesday's Market 09/30/2015

It has been an interesting couple of days following Monday’s steep move to the downside.  After Friday’s 1935.32 high the SPX broke sharply lower on Monday completing a 5 wave sequence at 1880.38. The choppy trading after that low looked to be the start of an inverted corrective wave, but turned out to be the another formation of the favored wave of this correction, the semi-inverted corrective wave. This wave completed at 1899.48. The index then moved lower once again, falling to 1871.91 in what can be counted as 5 waves, with the second once again turning out to be a semi-inverted corrective wave. From that low the SPX moved slightly higher to 1880.85 before a slight pullback into Monday’s close. Notice that the bounce to 1880.85 was slightly above the initial 1880.38 low from 1935.32.

So since 1935.32 the market fell in 5 waves to 1880.38, rallied in 5 waves to 1899.48, fell in 5 waves to 1871.91, and then rallied to 1880.85. From 1880.85 the SPX had a small pullback, and then rallied sharply this morning, moving up to 1914.31. The index then underwent another semi-inverted corrective wave to 1900.65, rallied to 1904.37, and the fell to 1897.05. Notice again that 1897.05 is slightly below the initial rally from 1880.38 to 1899.48.

 

Again from 1935.32 the SPX moved lower to 1880.38, rallied to 1899.48, and then fell below the initial low to 1871.91. After that the index rallied 1880.85, which is between 1880.38 and 1899.48, and then formed an inverted corrective wave which terminated at 1897.05 which is once again between 1880.38 and 1899.48. So from the 1880.38 low the SPX has completed Waves A, B, C, and D of another semi-inverted corrective wave. Wave E would have a target above 1925, slightly above today’s closing level. Notice that this is also slightly above 1921.50 which I have labeled as Wave (C). If this wave does end between 1921.50 and 1935.32, it would appear that the SPX is forming yet another semi-inverted corrective wave from 1921.50, and thus the index would still be in Wave (D). If true the SPX should then complete a corrective wave within the 1921.50-1935.32 range, and then move above 1935.32 to complete that wave. At the moment it looks like the wave would complete only slightly above that 1935.32 level. That would then complete Wave (D) and clear the way for Wave (E) to begin.

Monday's Market 09/28/2015

On Friday the SPX opened slightly higher, rising to 1952.89 by mid-afternoon before dropping back to 1921.50. I labeled 1952.89 as Wave D of (C) and 1921.50 as Wave E to complete Wave (C).  In order to be able to reach my 1748 target level, I stated that Wave (D) would now have to complete below 1990. The SPX rallied into then rallied into Friday’s close moving up to 1935.32. Although this rally was admittedly anemic, it would appear that after today’s action this was indeed all of Wave (D).  If this is the case, it would lower my target from below 1748 to below 1721.

The SPX started of lower today and continued lower throughout the day with barely a break. The index first dropped to 1902.85 before bouncing slightly to 1911.00. The next move carried the SPX all the way down to 1880.38. This would appear to be the end of the first wave of the decline.  At that point the SPX bounced to 1890.60, fell further to 1879.21, and then bounced again to 1888.90. This action can be interpreted as the a-b-c waves of an uncompleted inverted corrective wave. From here the SPX should undergo another move lower, followed by another bounce of about 10 points, similar to the 10 point bounce of the a and c waves mentioned above. That would complete the second wave of the decline with the third fourth and fifth waves to follow.

 

Friday's Market 09/25/2015

A lot has happened since Wednesday’s 1949.52 high, so I will get right to it. To review, I had labeled 1949.52 as Wave b from 1979.64. Wave c then completed at 1932.57, Wave d at 1920.60, and Wave e at 1908.92. This competed at 5 wave sequence from 1949.52, and the second wave or Wave [b] from last Friday’s 1953.45 Wave C low. The SPX then completed 3 waves up from that point between yesterday and today as 1924.63-1929.06-1952.89. These can be labeled as Waves [c], [d], and [e] to complete Wave D. Wave E then complete at 1921.50 to complete Wave (C) from the 12/5/2014 2079.46 high as seen on the Daily Chart.

This is the main 5 wave sequence from the 2019.26 high that I see as completing below 1748 sometime after next week. Given this scenario the SPX should now form one more wave to the upside before moving towards that low. This move higher would need to complete below 1990 in order to target a minimum of 1748.