Tuesday Update 02/27/2024

 The markets traded within a narrow band again today, consolidating the gains from late last week, and awaiting some potentially market moving economic data due out later this week. SPY did mange an opening gap higher, reaching 506.74, but immediately reversed direction and headed lower. It fell to 505.53 before bouncing back to 506.58. This would define the trading range that lasted until just before noon. At that point SPY breached the lower end of the range, and drifted under 505 to 504.75 just after 1:00. That marked the low of the day as SPY then rallied through the afternoon up to 507.16, and closed at 506.93.

Today's action did not have a material affect on our count. As described yesterday, SPY is now in Wave 5 of Wave 5 from the October 2022 low.

SPY completed Wave 1 of this 5th wave this past Friday at 510.13. The RSI(5) did turn up from an oversold condition, and the MACD momentum appears poised to move higher. This could indicate we are nearing, or have reached the end of this corrective phase. However, there is the possibility that we could see another move lower, in A - B - C fashion, from the Wave 1 high. This would likely form the first three waves of an inverted corrective wave, with SPY then moving higher.

Our target remains the same for this final wave, with a minimum of 517, and with the shorter term count targeting above 537. 

As readers of this blog know, I have been publishing my 537 target for some time. That would equate to ~ 5370 on the S&P. Glad to see Barklays concurs. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/barclays-raises-p-500-target-212917531.html

Monday's Update 02/26/2024

 The market opened marginally higher today, coming off the strong gains of late last week. SPY drifted up to 508.66 in early trading before reversing course and moving lower. That move lasted into late morning, and SPY was down to 507.01 just before 11:30, A small rally attempt lasted until after noon, and SPY was back to 507.88. Another move lower followed, with SPY testing the 506 level, dropping to 506.02 before trying to move higher once again, The rally failed at 507.29, and SPY moved back towards the low of the day. SPY did make a new low for the day just before close, dropping to 505.86, before closing at 505.99.

Our current count remains the same. The late rally last week appears to be the start of Wave 5 of Wave 5 from the October 2022 low of 348.11. It looks as though this Wave 5 is subdividing into a 5 wave sequence with Friday's high marking the completion of Wave 1. Our minimum target for the completion of this final wave is 517, with the smaller magnitude sequence pointing to a high above 337. 

Friday Update 02/23/2024

 The rally following NVDA's earnings report continued into this morning, as we saw another opening gap higher on SPY, propelling it briefly above 510. It hit a high of 510.12 before turning lower, trading between 509 and 510 before breaking lower to the 507 level. Two rally attempts failed at that same 509 level that had earlier offered support. The third attempt only made it to 508.76 before turning lower once again to close at 507.85.

We continue to follow this Wave 5 from the January 5,2024 Wave 4 low of 466.43. We had a minimum target of 517 for this final wave, which we are approaching. Our current structure for this wave gives a slightly higher target, with a minimum of 537.

We will be closely monitoring this final wave for any deviations from our current count.

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